30815 W Lost Creek Blvd · Magnolia, TX 77355

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,373 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2013 7,270 sqft lot Est $235k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pleasant one story home in Lakes of Magnolia. Wonderful island kitchen with granite counters, tile floors and 4 inch backsplash. Split floor plan. Covered patio on back perfect for a bbq in the fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PREWIRED FOR SECURITY SYSTEM
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: ACMI homeowners association; Association fee $480 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first); Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2013; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 17 x 12; Bedroom (first level) — 10 x 9; Bedroom (first level) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-783/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,860 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,783
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31002 E Lost Creek Blvd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,373 (0%)	18mo	$235,000	$171	76
30606 S Sulphur Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+13%)	8mo	$248,900	$160	60
—	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+5%)	14mo	$435,000	$303	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-41,364
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-41,114
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,626/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $218,468

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $0	+0% $-65	+5% $-130	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-144	+0% $-65	+5% $14	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-7	base $-65	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	0.80mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 434-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,626 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,626
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2016-08-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-24 Listed $112,875 HARMLS
• 2016-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-03-23 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2015-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-30 Listed $159,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,626 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.