104 Perpetuation Dr · Lakeway, TX 78734

$373,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,303 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2008 $162/sqft · 29% below area Est $527k · 29% under $570/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the residence at 104 Perpetuation Dr. The floor plan includes and all stainless steel appliances within the layout. A kitchen island accent black splash sits central to the space. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet. The primary bathroom provides double sinks along with a separate tub and shower. This home is a perfect blend of style and functionality, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Kitchen island
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SEPARATE TUB AND SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $373k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-806 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,544 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.27%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $526,789
• List price: $373,000
• Delta: -29.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-105,984
• Equity at exit: $55,616

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-133,884
• Equity at exit: $32,250

Cash invested: $104,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,956
• Tax from tax record: −$756 /mo · $9,075/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$570
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,352

Max offer price $230,544

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,250
• Closing costs: $11,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15101 Mettle Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$3,495	$1.59	4d	1	0.31mi
2050 Lohmans Spur Rd Unit 1 Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,899	$1.74	4d	1	0.59mi
23 Juniper Berry Way #16 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2173	$2,850	$1.31	15d	1	0.61mi
23 Juniper Berry Way #16 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2173	$2,949	$1.36	24d	1	0.61mi
64 White Magnolia Cir Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2133	$2,890	$1.35	24d	1	0.77mi
309 Aria Dr Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$5,000	$1.53	24d	1	0.79mi
6 Sunview Rd The Hills, TX	3.0	3.5	2590	$3,495	$1.35	4d	1	0.84mi
1701 Idle Hour Cv Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2577	$3,300	$1.28	24d	1	0.86mi
114 Paragon Ct Lakeway, TX	4.0	3.5	3143	$3,300	$1.05	24d	1	0.92mi
109 Aria Rdg #905 Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,700	$1.57	24d	1	0.95mi
109 Aria Rdg #905 Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,700	$1.57	15d	1	0.95mi
15101 Canary St Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2771	$4,600	$1.66	44d	1	1.24mi
409 S Meadowlark St Unit A Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2651	$2,850	$1.08	44d	1	1.31mi
1 Crystal Springs Ct The Hills, TX	4.0	4.0	2789	$2,999	$1.08	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $570 · $6,840/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $373,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $373,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $373,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $373,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $373,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $373,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $373,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $373,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $373,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $373,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $373,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $373,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $373,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $373,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Welcome to the residence at 104 Perpetuation Dr. The floor plan includes and all stainless steel appliances within the layout. A kitchen island accent black splash sits central to the space. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet. The primary bathroom provides double sinks along with a separate tub and shower. This home is a perfect blend of style and functionality, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

15. 2026-04-23
    price $387,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Welcome to the residence at 104 Perpetuation Dr. The floor plan includes and all stainless steel appliances within the layout. A kitchen island accent black splash sits central to the space. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet. The primary bathroom provides double sinks along with a separate tub and shower. This home is a perfect blend of style and functionality, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

16. 2026-04-02
    price $400,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Welcome to the residence at 104 Perpetuation Dr. The floor plan includes and all stainless steel appliances within the layout. A kitchen island accent black splash sits central to the space. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet. The primary bathroom provides double sinks along with a separate tub and shower. This home is a perfect blend of style and functionality, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $410,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Welcome to the residence at 104 Perpetuation Dr. The floor plan includes and all stainless steel appliances within the layout. A kitchen island accent black splash sits central to the space. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet. The primary bathroom provides double sinks along with a separate tub and shower. This home is a perfect blend of style and functionality, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

18. 2026-03-18
    soldstatus
19. 2021-08-31
    soldstatus
20. 2019-12-11
    soldstatus
21. 2019-12-10
    soldstatus Sold 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This lock & leave home is in pristine condition and has been lovingly maintained. The kitchen, with stainless steel appliances, opens to the dining/living areas. The master bedroom with en-suite bath is truly a retreat from busy Austin life. A patio adjacent to the living area and a deck off the master provide private outdoor living spaces. The HOA maintains landscaping/exterior/exercise facility/pool. The home is close to everything Lakeway has to offer. Location. Location. Furniture negotiable. Sprinkler Sys:Yes

22. 2019-11-06
    status Pending 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This lock & leave home is in pristine condition and has been lovingly maintained. The kitchen, with stainless steel appliances, opens to the dining/living areas. The master bedroom with en-suite bath is truly a retreat from busy Austin life. A patio adjacent to the living area and a deck off the master provide private outdoor living spaces. The HOA maintains landscaping/exterior/exercise facility/pool. The home is close to everything Lakeway has to offer. Location. Location. Furniture negotiable. Sprinkler Sys:Yes

23. 2019-10-31
    status Pending - Taking Backups 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This lock & leave home is in pristine condition and has been lovingly maintained. The kitchen, with stainless steel appliances, opens to the dining/living areas. The master bedroom with en-suite bath is truly a retreat from busy Austin life. A patio adjacent to the living area and a deck off the master provide private outdoor living spaces. The HOA maintains landscaping/exterior/exercise facility/pool. The home is close to everything Lakeway has to offer. Location. Location. Furniture negotiable. Sprinkler Sys:Yes

24. 2019-10-24
    listed $339,500 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This lock & leave home is in pristine condition and has been lovingly maintained. The kitchen, with stainless steel appliances, opens to the dining/living areas. The master bedroom with en-suite bath is truly a retreat from busy Austin life. A patio adjacent to the living area and a deck off the master provide private outdoor living spaces. The HOA maintains landscaping/exterior/exercise facility/pool. The home is close to everything Lakeway has to offer. Location. Location. Furniture negotiable. Sprinkler Sys:Yes

25. 2009-10-31
    historical
26. 2009-07-24
    soldstatus
27. 2009-07-24
    historical
28. 2009-01-10
    listed $219,995
29. 2008-10-29
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,075 · $756/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,075 · $756/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,894
• − Property taxes: −$9,075
• − Insurance: −$1,865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,198
• − Management: −$3,198
• − HOA: −$6,840
• − Depreciation: −$10,851
• Taxable loss: −$15,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeway

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #7227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeway, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 22,145
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+69.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $373,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $387,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $400,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $410,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-10 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2019-11-06 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-10-31 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-10-24 Listed $339,500 Unlock MLS
• 2009-10-31 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2009-07-24 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2009-07-24 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2009-01-10 Listed $219,995 Unlock MLS
• 2008-10-29 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,075 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.