1404 Case Knife Rd · Pulaski, VA 24301

$60,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 429 Days on market

Built 2001 1.76 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

Key facts

• 1.76 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 429 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 5.5% in Pulaski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#297 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.26%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,000
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Fayette St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+15%)	3mo	$200,000	$152	68
125 Fayette St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-10%)	12mo	$145,000	$140	64
2904 Mt. Olivet Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+8%)	3mo	$149,900	$121	54
143 Lake St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-3%)	7mo	$151,000	$135	54
1762 Caseknife Road Rd	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-6%)	15mo	$20,000	$19	52
127 State Aly	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	1mo	$199,000	$199	51
127 State	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	1mo	$190,000	$190	51
8 Bertha St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (+14%)	18mo	$25,000	$19	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $22,608
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $61,322
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24301

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $493

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $60,000 Pending 429 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 429 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 427 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 426 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 424 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 423 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 422 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 421 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $60,000 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 416 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 415 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 414 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 413 DOM
14. 2026-03-08
    price $60,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

15. 2026-01-16
    price $70,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

16. 2025-09-26
    price $80,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

17. 2025-07-04
    price $90,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

18. 2025-06-07
    price $95,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

19. 2025-04-11
    listed $100,000 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1.76 ACRES WITH 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WAITING FOR YOUR TLC TO MAKE IT A HOME. PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND BUYER/BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION.

20. 2024-10-25
    listed $82,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $5,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $4,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103150
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,912
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2537
• State rank: #86 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pulaski

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #10639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pulaski, VA
• Population (ZIP): 13,370

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,949 people
• By 2030: 31,812 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,224 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 26,691 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 21,312 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 15,697 · -52.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+24.8 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.98%
• Current HPI: 144.6556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $60,000 SWVAR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $70,000 SWVAR
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $80,000 SWVAR
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $90,000 SWVAR
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $95,000 SWVAR
• 2025-04-11 Listed $100,000 SWVAR
• 2024-10-25 Listed $82,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $599 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.