Manchester Plan · Commercial Point, OH 43116

$419,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,163 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Manchester welcomes you home!. This 2-story, four bedroom home plan has great curb appeal. If spacious, open-concept living fits your lifestyle, the Manchester is the floor plan for you. The kitchen, dinette, and great room create a space that is great for entertaining. There's even an optional guest suite for those out of town guests or in laws. The second floor boasts a loft option that could easily be used as a family room or play room for the kids. Contact us today to learn more about this floor plan!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $419,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Manchester plan); Listed as a plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,163

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Manchester (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $419,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $505,549.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#388 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Teays Valley Local (town): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #166 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Scioto Elementary School (math 71% / reading 71%, grade A-, #371 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 640 students, 21% FRL); Teays Valley West Middle School (math 67% / reading 64%, grade A-, #186 of 654 statewide, top 29%, 534 students, 18% FRL); Teays Valley High School (math 50% / reading 70%, grade C+, #239 of 781 statewide, top 31%, 1,196 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 312 units permitted in Pickaway County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Pickaway County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $265,000 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.87%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,549
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Cherry Hills Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,324 (+7%)	11mo	$459,900	$198	72
426 Bethpage Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,915 (-12%)	3mo	$419,900	$219	71
438 Bethpage Blvd	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-15%)	2mo	$446,000	$242	66
46 Chambers Bay Rd	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,037 (-6%)	13mo	$465,780	$229	62
369 Cherry Hills Rd	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,315 (+7%)	12mo	$480,830	$208	60
358 Oakmont Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,972 (-9%)	0mo	$441,380	$224	60
341 Merion Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,336 (+8%)	3mo	$496,330	$212	58
33 Erin Hills Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,440 (+13%)	2mo	$469,900	$193	56
338 Cherry Hills Rd	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,969 (-9%)	3mo	$439,350	$223	55
347 Canterbury Rd	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,336 (+8%)	12mo	$469,820	$201	54
403 Cherry Hills Rd	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,340 (+8%)	13mo	$453,940	$194	50
305 Olympic Loop	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,951 (-10%)	3mo	$449,750	$231	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-88,606
• Equity at exit: $163,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-107,707
• Equity at exit: $209,587

Cash invested: $141,554 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43116

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$632 /mo · $7,583/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-1,400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,422

Max offer price $302,933

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,051	-5% $-1,226	+0% $-1,400	+5% $-1,575	+10% $-1,750
Rent	-10% $-1,610	-5% $-1,505	+0% $-1,400	+5% $-1,296	+10% $-1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,146	-0.5pp $-1,272	base $-1,400	+0.5pp $-1,531	+1.0pp $-1,665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,387
• Closing costs: $15,166
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 Riverside Dr Commercial Point, OH	4.0	2.5	2850	$2,650	$0.93	5d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $419,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,319
• − Property taxes: −$7,583
• − Insurance: −$2,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$14,707
• Taxable loss: −$26,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,342
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Teays Valley Local
• NCES district ID: 3904909
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $64,637
• Composite: 58.28/100
• National rank: #1019
• State rank: #166 of 656 in OH

Livability — Commercial Point

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #388
• US rank: #6304

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commercial Point, OH
• County: Pickaway · 57,589 people
• City population: 2,764
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• Population (ZIP): 2,764
• Household income: $108,889
• Rent vs Own: 4.3% rent · 95.7% own

Population outlook (Pickaway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,488 people
• By 2030: 60,400 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 61,498 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 61,478 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 59,696 · +0.3%
• By 2100: 51,458 · -13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pickaway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.5) · D 25.3% · R 73.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -48.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.5 2020: R+47.0 2016: R+42.6 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 260.1756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B