3 Liberty St · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$865,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2008 7,841 sqft lot $718/sqft · 12% below area Est $985k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cape May Romatic Ranch. Outside/In Total Redo 2006-Roof, Siding, Cov. Mahogany Porch & Back Steps, Patios, Shed & Fence + Mudroom. New Tiled & Silestone Kit/Dining Area W/Degigner Cabs/Pantry, Cath Ceils In Family Rm W/Fireplace. Master Br W/New Flrs & Bath, 2 Lg Guest Brs & New Bath. Inside Entrance-Fin Bsmt W Cedar Closet, W & D, Storage Rms, Cac. Near Beach., Additional information: Appearance:Super Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Electric service: PSEG; Sewer: Cesspool
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Wet bar; Finished basement; Has fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $865k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $865k).
• Recommended offer: $839k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,436/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $242k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($839k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $865k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $839,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.14%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $985,131
• List price: $865,000
• Delta: -12.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Hampton Bays Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	2mo	$967,500	$733	78
7 Harvard Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (+2%)	2mo	$815,000	$664	65
15 Yale Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-0%)	19mo	$814,000	$678	62
14 Washington Ave	0.05mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+8%)	22mo	$750,000	$577	59
56 W Donellan Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+11%)	1mo	$795,000	$593	59
39 Lynncliff Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-8%)	0mo	$790,000	$710	56
4 Wells Ln	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,378 (+14%)	0mo	$1,115,000	$809	56
4 Holiday Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,097 (-9%)	6mo	$700,000	$638	53
51A Foster Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-2%)	17mo	$895,000	$762	49
2 Flocee Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,109 (-8%)	16mo	$800,000	$721	46
24 Huckleberry Ln	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+8%)	18mo	$850,000	$654	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $39,826
• Equity at exit: $128,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $428,637
• Equity at exit: $74,789

Cash invested: $242,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,536
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,143/yr
• Insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,982
• Net cashflow: $2,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,846

Max offer price $865,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $216,250
• Closing costs: $25,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	18d	1	0.19mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.27mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.28mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.39mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.42mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.56mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	0.56mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	0.62mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	0.65mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	0.77mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	43d	1	0.78mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	1.13mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	43d	1	1.17mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	24d	1	1.20mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	1.38mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $865,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $865,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $865,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $865,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $865,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $865,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $865,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $865,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $865,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $865,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $865,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $865,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $865,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $865,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $865,000 Active 597-char remark
16. 2013-03-04
    soldstatus $335,000
17. 2013-02-13
    soldstatus $335,000 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Cape May Romatic Ranch. Outside/In Total Redo 2006-Roof, Siding, Cov. Mahogany Porch & Back Steps, Patios, Shed & Fence + Mudroom. New Tiled & Silestone Kit/Dining Area W/Degigner Cabs/Pantry, Cath Ceils In Family Rm W/Fireplace. Master Br W/New Flrs & Bath, 2 Lg Guest Brs & New Bath. Inside Entrance-Fin Bsmt W Cedar Closet, W & D, Storage Rms, Cac. Near Beach., Additional information: Appearance:Super Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

18. 2012-11-01
    listed $359,000 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Cape May Romatic Ranch. Outside/In Total Redo 2006-Roof, Siding, Cov. Mahogany Porch & Back Steps, Patios, Shed & Fence + Mudroom. New Tiled & Silestone Kit/Dining Area W/Degigner Cabs/Pantry, Cath Ceils In Family Rm W/Fireplace. Master Br W/New Flrs & Bath, 2 Lg Guest Brs & New Bath. Inside Entrance-Fin Bsmt W Cedar Closet, W & D, Storage Rms, Cac. Near Beach., Additional information: Appearance:Super Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

19. 1999-02-05
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,143 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,381 · $865/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,238/yr (+$353/mo · 69.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $113,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,453
• − Property taxes: −$6,143
• − Insurance: −$4,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,059
• − Management: −$9,059
• − Depreciation: −$25,164
• Taxable income: $11,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,648
• After-tax cash flow: $21,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2269.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $865,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-13 Sold (MLS) $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-01 Listed $359,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,143 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.