3016 Isla Ter · Princeton, TX 75407

$314,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,253 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 2024 2,178 sqft lot $140/sqft · 10% below area Est $350k · 10% under $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home, perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot in Princeton's exclusive lagoon community. Offering an impressive blend of comfort and elegance, this residence promises an inviting atmosphere ideal for both relaxation and entertainment. Step inside to find a light and bright open floor plan accentuated by expansive windows that flood every room with natural light. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a modern kitchen featuring sleek countertops, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar. Generously-sized bedrooms ensure comfort and versatility, while the master suite boasts a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy your slice of paradise with lush landscaping and ample yard space for outdoor activities. The vibrant community offers a resort-style lagoon, making everyday feel like a vacation. Don't miss out on this exceptional property.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LAGOON COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $245,094 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,569
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: -9.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3206 Lucia Way	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,253 (0%)	0mo	$314,990	$140	93
2306 Winthrop Ave	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+0%)	1mo	$284,500	$126	68
3411 High Valley Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+0%)	6mo	$347,382	$154	66
2316 Winthrop Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	1mo	$319,490	$151	62
2105 N Washington St	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,264 (+0%)	0mo	$329,500	$146	62
210 Greenbriar Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,341 (+4%)	1mo	$337,990	$144	61
202 Greenbriar Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,071 (-8%)	3mo	$314,990	$152	53
117 Fairlawn Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,448 (+9%)	1mo	$369,990	$151	50
203 Greenbriar Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-12%)	4mo	$335,717	$169	46
110 Greenbriar Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,536 (+13%)	2mo	$354,990	$140	44
200 Greenbriar Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,537 (+13%)	3mo	$354,990	$140	42
3605 Belfort Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,981 (-12%)	1mo	$322,990	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-76,601
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-117,938
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,451 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,818

Max offer price $273,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-181	+0% $-290	+5% $-398	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-483	-5% $-386	+0% $-290	+5% $-193	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-209	base $-290	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3007 Italia Ter Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	25d	1	0.07mi
2902 Italia Ter McKinney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,450	$1.17	13d	1	0.07mi
507 Parrino Pkwy McKinney, TX	4.0	3.5	2445	$2,595	$1.06	19d	1	0.09mi
3112 Lucia Way McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	2445	$2,190	$0.90	44d	1	0.09mi
513 Parrino Pkwy Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,200	$1.01	18d	1	0.09mi
3112 Cordelia Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,100	$1.03	3d	1	0.10mi
3114 Cordelia Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	2.5	2906	$2,200	$0.76	7d	1	0.10mi
403 Parrino Pkwy McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	2800	$2,800	$1.00	19d	1	0.10mi
3113 Cordelia Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	2.5	2454	$2,495	$1.02	19d	1	0.12mi
3115 Cordelia Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	2.5	2508	$2,550	$1.02	22d	1	0.12mi
3120 Cordelia Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	2445	$2,350	$0.96	44d	1	0.12mi
3108 Giovanni Pt Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2387	$1,950	$0.82	44d	1	0.13mi
2905 Cantoni Crk Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	44d	1	0.14mi
3114 Giovanni Pt McKinney, TX	4.0	2.0	1958	$2,300	$1.17	21d	1	0.15mi
3212 Cordelia Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	2.5	2253	$2,150	$0.95	4d	1	0.19mi
3212 Lucia Way McKinney, TX	4.0	2.5	2311	$2,200	$0.95	19d	1	0.19mi
810 Sicily Blvd Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1906	$2,300	$1.21	25d	1	0.24mi
905 Sicily Blvd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2247	$2,300	$1.02	5d	1	0.29mi
3009 Camilli Cv , TX	4.0	2.5	2438	$2,500	$1.03	44d	1	0.32mi
3204 Ferrero Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,950	$1.07	2d	1	0.33mi
112 Connecticut Ct , TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,990	$1.24	44d	1	0.53mi
2312 Winthrop Ave Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,275	$0.87	44d	1	0.57mi
2313 States St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.57mi
2304 Winthrop Ave Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,600	$0.94	44d	1	0.60mi
2206 Pioneer Dr Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,600	$0.94	44d	1	0.61mi
1901 States St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,700	$1.19	25d	1	0.62mi
216 Savannah Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,875	$1.14	7d	1	0.69mi
2119 Hamilton St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.70mi
2117 Revere Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,050	$1.26	44d	1	0.72mi
3602 High Valley Dr McKinney, TX	5.0	3.0	2760	$3,750	$1.36	25d	1	0.73mi
603 Charity Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,300	$1.02	44d	1	0.77mi
2008 Washington St Princeton, TX	5.0	2.5	3144	$2,600	$0.83	44d	1	0.78mi
2004 Hancock Cir Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$1,995	$0.88	13d	1	0.78mi
311 Pennsylvania Ave Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,195	$0.97	25d	1	0.80mi
408 Forest St Princeton, TX	5.0	3.5	2617	$2,595	$0.99	3d	1	0.82mi
718 Declaration Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1991	$2,195	$1.10	44d	1	0.83mi
1908 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,150	$0.82	21d	1	0.86mi
1906 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,995	$1.22	44d	1	0.86mi
611 Colgate Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.88mi
1902 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,295	$0.88	5d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $314,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $314,990 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home, perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot in Princeton's exclusive lagoon community. Offering an impressive blend of comfort and elegance, this residence promises an inviting atmosphere ideal for both relaxation and entertainment. Step inside to find a light and bright open floor plan accentuated by expansive windows that flood every room with natural light. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into a modern kitchen featuring sleek countertops, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar. Generously-sized bedrooms ensure comfort and versatility, while the master suite boasts a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy your slice of paradise with lush landscaping and ample yard space for outdoor activities. The vibrant community offers a resort-style lagoon, making everyday feel like a vacation. Don't miss out on this exceptional property.

16. 2025-09-04
    historical
17. 2025-07-15
    listed $377,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,353
• − Management: −$2,353
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$8,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $314,990 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $377,900 NTREIS