616 S 21st St · Saginaw, MI 48601

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1962 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean 3br, 2full baths, updatd floor coverings with a 1.5 car garage and extra long driveway to park all your vehicles. Lots of work has been done on this home, including garage and shed. New PAINT throughout the home. Move-in ready. Newer Water Heater and Furnace.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Biltmore subdivision; Cross streets: Perkins & Janes
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached paved garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced yard; City lot; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments; Crawl space basement; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.26%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
333 S 23rd St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,191 (-1%)	14mo	$44,900	$38	67
427 S 24th St	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-13%)	4mo	$79,900	$77	59
3026 Janes Rd	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	11mo	$44,000	$35	54
2229 Bancroft St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-9%)	15mo	$15,000	$14	54
3026 Janes Rd	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	11mo	$44,000	$35	54
3333 Janes Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-4%)	4mo	$40,101	$35	52
3185 Walnut St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,348 (+12%)	12mo	$139,000	$103	49
525 S 14th St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-13%)	9mo	$48,500	$46	44
814 S 12th St	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,106 (-8%)	11mo	$40,000	$36	39
3366 Janes Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-15%)	3mo	$9,500	$9	36
334 S 31st St	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,304 (+9%)	16mo	$29,000	$22	34
643 S 10th St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (-13%)	15mo	$22,000	$21	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $22,194
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $62,505
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $787/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $584

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $546	+0% $526	+5% $506	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $477	+0% $526	+5% $576	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $544	base $526	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 265-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $932 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$787
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $4,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $787 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.