415 Ruby Ford Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$299,440

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2025 7,662 sqft lot $127/sqft · 5% below area Est $316k · 5% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

White Glacier cabinets with gleaming granite countertops set the stage for modern comfort at Windcress—a vibrant community where exceptional living meets unbeatable value. Step inside open-concept homes with versatile floor plans designed for today’s lifestyle, and step outside to enjoy state-of-the-art amenities you won’t find anywhere else in the area: a sparkling resort-style pool, tot lot, putting green, pickleball courts, and so much more! Perfectly located near Mont Belvieu, Windcress is zoned to the top-rated Barbers Hill ISD and offers quick access to I-10 and FM 146. More than just a neighborhood, Windcress is your next adventure—where city convenience meets the true charm of home.

Key facts

• Tot lot
• Open-concept homes
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• WHITE GLACIER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN-CONCEPT HOMES
• VERSATILE FLOOR PLANS
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• TOT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $270,542 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,612
• List price: $299,440
• Delta: -5.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-27,435
• Equity at exit: $44,647

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $6,229
• Equity at exit: $25,890

Cash invested: $83,843 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,570
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $299,440

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $400	+0% $315	+5% $230	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $208	+0% $315	+5% $422	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $391	base $315	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,860
• Closing costs: $8,983
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	44d	1	0.57mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	2d	1	0.64mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	25d	1	1.22mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (729 chars)

   White Glacier cabinets with gleaming granite countertops set the stage for modern comfort at Windcress—a vibrant community where exceptional living meets unbeatable value. Step inside open-concept homes with versatile floor plans designed for today’s lifestyle, and step outside to enjoy state-of-the-art amenities you won’t find anywhere else in the area: a sparkling resort-style pool, tot lot, putting green, pickleball courts, and so much more! Perfectly located near Mont Belvieu, Windcress is zoned to the top-rated Barbers Hill ISD and offers quick access to I-10 and FM 146. More than just a neighborhood, Windcress is your next adventure—where city convenience meets the true charm of home.

2. 2026-05-08
   listed $299,440 Active 729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (729 chars)

   White Glacier cabinets with gleaming granite countertops set the stage for modern comfort at Windcress—a vibrant community where exceptional living meets unbeatable value. Step inside open-concept homes with versatile floor plans designed for today’s lifestyle, and step outside to enjoy state-of-the-art amenities you won’t find anywhere else in the area: a sparkling resort-style pool, tot lot, putting green, pickleball courts, and so much more! Perfectly located near Mont Belvieu, Windcress is zoned to the top-rated Barbers Hill ISD and offers quick access to I-10 and FM 146. More than just a neighborhood, Windcress is your next adventure—where city convenience meets the true charm of home.

3. 2026-05-08
   historical

   Show marketing remark (729 chars)

   White Glacier cabinets with gleaming granite countertops set the stage for modern comfort at Windcress—a vibrant community where exceptional living meets unbeatable value. Step inside open-concept homes with versatile floor plans designed for today’s lifestyle, and step outside to enjoy state-of-the-art amenities you won’t find anywhere else in the area: a sparkling resort-style pool, tot lot, putting green, pickleball courts, and so much more! Perfectly located near Mont Belvieu, Windcress is zoned to the top-rated Barbers Hill ISD and offers quick access to I-10 and FM 146. More than just a neighborhood, Windcress is your next adventure—where city convenience meets the true charm of home.

4. 2026-04-25
   price $299,570
5. 2026-04-08
   price $311,570
6. 2026-03-28
   price $309,570
7. 2026-03-06
   listed $314,560 Active
8. 2026-03-06
   historical
9. 2026-02-09
   price $319,990
10. 2026-01-26
    price $329,560
11. 2026-01-16
    price $319,560
12. 2025-10-10
    price $329,000
13. 2025-10-09
    price $329,560
14. 2025-09-10
    listed $339,900 Active
15. 2025-09-10
    historical
16. 2025-05-08
    listed $346,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,480 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,851/yr (+$404/mo · 771.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,773
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,597
• − Management: −$2,597
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,711
• Taxable loss: −$1,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$298
• After-tax cash flow: $4,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $299,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $299,570 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $311,570 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $309,570 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $314,560 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $329,560 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $319,560 HARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $329,560 HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $346,000 HARMLS