123 Greasy Cove Rd · Cosby, TN 37722

$299,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1970 1.95 ac lot $231/sqft · 16% below area Est $358k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Cosby, this charming property offers endless potential on just under 2 unrestricted, level acres surrounded by the beauty of mature walnut, pecan, pear, and apple trees. The home features 2 bedrooms with a versatile third room that could easily serve as an additional bedroom, office, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer roof, only 3 years old, adds peace of mind, while the year-round creek flowing through the front yard and a second seasonal creek at the back of the property create a truly serene setting. Two detached sheds provide additional functionality, including one equipped with plumbing and electricity that offers excellent potential for separate living quarters, guest space, or possible rental income. A detached garage adds storage space for equipment or hobbies. With room to spread out and no restrictions, this unique property presents a rare opportunity to create your own private East Tennessee retreat. Property is being sold as-is with no repairs to be made by seller; firepit and items currently on the deck will not convey with the sale.

Key facts

• Level acres
• Mature pecan trees
• Mature walnut trees

Tags

• LEVEL ACRES
• MATURE WALNUT TREES
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• MATURE PEAR TREES
• MATURE APPLE TREES
• YEAR ROUND CREEK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; 1,296 total building area (tax records)
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Storage structure; Creek on the property; Level lot; Country setting view

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate floors; Vinyl floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-554 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (32.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,620 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,170
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -16.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 Greasy Cove Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+10%)	1mo	$379,000	$265	67
3267 Cosby Creek Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,201 (-7%)	5mo	$362,300	$302	62
3271 3281 Cosby Creek Way	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	6mo	$380,000	$330	55
147 Padgett Mill Rd	0.45mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+5%)	8mo	$400,000	$294	55
32713281 Cosby Creek Way	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	6mo	$380,000	$330	55
104 Apricot Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,107 (-15%)	10mo	$260,000	$235	48
199 Padgett Mill Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+8%)	23mo	$390,000	$278	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $127,903
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $404,185
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $201,958

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $299,900 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $299,900 Active 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Cosby, this charming property offers endless potential on just under 2 unrestricted, level acres surrounded by the beauty of mature walnut, pecan, pear, and apple trees. The home features 2 bedrooms with a versatile third room that could easily serve as an additional bedroom, office, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer roof, only 3 years old, adds peace of mind, while the year-round creek flowing through the front yard and a second seasonal creek at the back of the property create a truly serene setting. Two detached sheds provide additional functionality, including one equipped with plumbing and electricity that offers excellent potential for separate living quarters, guest space, or possible rental income. A detached garage adds storage space for equipment or hobbies. With room to spread out and no restrictions, this unique property presents a rare opportunity to create your own private East Tennessee retreat. Property is being sold as-is with no repairs to be made by seller; firepit and items currently on the deck will not convey with the sale.

18. 2026-04-27
    listed $299,900 Active 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Cosby, this charming property offers endless potential on just under 2 unrestricted, level acres surrounded by the beauty of mature walnut, pecan, pear, and apple trees. The home features 2 bedrooms with a versatile third room that could easily serve as an additional bedroom, office, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer roof, only 3 years old, adds peace of mind, while the year-round creek flowing through the front yard and a second seasonal creek at the back of the property create a truly serene setting. Two detached sheds provide additional functionality, including one equipped with plumbing and electricity that offers excellent potential for separate living quarters, guest space, or possible rental income. A detached garage adds storage space for equipment or hobbies. With room to spread out and no restrictions, this unique property presents a rare opportunity to create your own private East Tennessee retreat. Property is being sold as-is with no repairs to be made by seller; firepit and items currently on the deck will not convey with the sale.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,129 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,229/yr (+$102/mo · 136.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$2,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$12,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,959
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $299,900 GSMAR
• 2026-04-27 Listed $299,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $900 · +56.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.