96 Dam Rd · Mayflower, AR 72106

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 250 Days on market

1.00 ac lot $97/sqft · 28% below area Est $223k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers alot! Right across street from Conway Lake with Lake view! Has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large living area, dine in kitchen. This home has been in the process of some remodels and some items needed in continuance of remodel are there. This home is a wonderful investor property to finalize remodel and resell! Has a very nice outside storage buildiing and nice big fenced in back yard. HVAC installed 2015! New Roof installed 2014!

Key facts

• Lake view
• Fenced in back yard
• Hvac installed 2015

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• OUTSIDE STORAGE BUILDING
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• HVAC INSTALLED 2015
• NEW ROOF INSTALLED 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.8% in Mayflower — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $160k implies a 789% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,707
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -28.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Dam Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+4%)	16mo	$254,500	$148	66
22 Breva Circle Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+13%)	8mo	$59,900	$32	56
10 Durham Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,555 (-6%)	23mo	$215,000	$138	49
35 S Highway 89	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (-6%)	18mo	$232,000	$149	41
8 Meadowlark Pt	0.46mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,422 (-14%)	19mo	$70,000	$49	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $111,214
• Equity at exit: $139,701

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.79×
• Total profit: $304,064
• Equity at exit: $296,667

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	1.24mi
5 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	1.25mi
7 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	1.25mi
11 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	1.26mi
17 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	1.29mi
110 Sunbelt Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,750	$0.92	43d	1	1.35mi
103 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	14d	1	1.35mi
104 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	1.37mi
101 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,923	$1.16	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 250 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 231 DOM
16. 2025-10-11
    listed $160,000 New Listing 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This property offers alot! Right across street from Conway Lake with Lake view! Has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large living area, dine in kitchen. This home has been in the process of some remodels and some items needed in continuance of remodel are there. This home is a wonderful investor property to finalize remodel and resell! Has a very nice outside storage buildiing and nice big fenced in back yard. HVAC installed 2015! New Roof installed 2014!

17. 1989-09-25
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$42/mo · 94.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,846
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$683
• After-tax cash flow: $4,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+788.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-11 Listed $160,000 CARMLS
• 1989-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.