168 Water St · Lakehills, TX 78063

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 367 Days on market

Built 1961 0.32 ac lot $101/sqft · 23% below area Est $130k · 23% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Front Property. Discover your slice of Texas Hill Country with this 2-bedroom, 1 bath cabin nestled in the peaceful town of Pipe Creek. Located just a short drive from Bandera, Boerne, and San Antonio, this property offers rustic charm and tons of potential for renovation or rebuild, backyard has massive mature trees & natural surroundings. Don't miss your opportunity at this price point.

Key facts

• Massive mature trees
• Natural surroundings
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• MASSIVE MATURE TREES
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $74k (25.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,291 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,588
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -22.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
446 Beach Shr	0.63mi	2/1.5	912 (-8%)	20mo	$99,500	$109	38
1040 LAKESHORE Lakeshore	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	891 (-10%)	9mo	$110,000	$123	37
430 Beach Shore Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+13%)	22mo	$65,000	$58	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-25,198
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-32,761
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,389/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $74,291

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Water St Unit B Pipe Creek, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.05mi
161 Water St Unit A Pipe Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	0.05mi
146 Cedar St Pipe Creek, TX	2.0	1.5	1092	$1,695	$1.55	7d	1	0.23mi
535 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 4 Bandera, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	24d	1	1.44mi
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 353 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 352 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 351 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 350 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 349 DOM
13. 2025-09-26
    price $100,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Lake Front Property. Discover your slice of Texas Hill Country with this 2-bedroom, 1 bath cabin nestled in the peaceful town of Pipe Creek. Located just a short drive from Bandera, Boerne, and San Antonio, this property offers rustic charm and tons of potential for renovation or rebuild, backyard has massive mature trees & natural surroundings. Don't miss your opportunity at this price point.

14. 2025-06-16
    listed $120,000 New 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Lake Front Property. Discover your slice of Texas Hill Country with this 2-bedroom, 1 bath cabin nestled in the peaceful town of Pipe Creek. Located just a short drive from Bandera, Boerne, and San Antonio, this property offers rustic charm and tons of potential for renovation or rebuild, backyard has massive mature trees & natural surroundings. Don't miss your opportunity at this price point.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,389
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$3,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$776
• After-tax cash flow: $-970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $100,000 LERA
• 2025-06-16 Listed $120,000 LERA

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,389 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.