1626 Gibbes Way · The Villages, FL 32162

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2006 3,520 sqft lot Est $280k · 5% under $204/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to effortless Florida living in this charming Colony patio villa, ideally situated in one of the most desirable locations within The Villages—just south of Lake Sumter Landing and conveniently above 466A. Tucked away in a quiet neighborhood and positioned backing to a pie-shaped homesite, this property offers a rare sense of privacy while still being moments from the vibrant lifestyle that makes this community so special. The SeaBreeze Rec Center is common destination for owners in this area for beach volleyball, pickleball, pool activities, and the wonderfully appointed/decorated rooms within the building. As you arrive, you’re greeted by an enclosed front lanai—a

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Enclosed front lanai
• Cozy dinette area

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT LANAI
• OPEN AND AIRY FLOOR PLAN
• COZY DINETTE AREA
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• DEDICATED GOLF CART PARKING
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Partially furnished; Directions provided
• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Association: VCDD; Total monthly association fees reported; Senior community; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, playground, dog park, golf, sidewalks, park, community mailbox, and golf carts allowed; Pets allowed; Deed restrictions and special community restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Golf cart parking; 1 garage space (garage dimensions approx. 18x22)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Northwest facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as model: Colony
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened front porch; Landscaped lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Natural Gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $249k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $265k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.55%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2376 Branchville Ter	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$216	84
1808 Hallandale Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$238	83
1814 Hallandale Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$280,000	$242	82
2369 Travis Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$203	82
1858 Endsley Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$270,000	$234	80
1358 Hollyberry Pl	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	3mo	$280,000	$242	80
2507 Everwood Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	3mo	$305,000	$257	76
2543 Raintree Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-5%)	1mo	$285,500	$260	72
2672 Sandhill Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$225	66
1496 Lime Grove Ln	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,132 (-2%)	3mo	$335,000	$296	60
1550 Lime Grove Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	1mo	$340,000	$283	59
2677 English Ivy Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+7%)	1mo	$299,900	$242	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,311
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,639
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,875/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,460

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1607 Allendale Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	21d	1	0.09mi
2383 Camden Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	0.22mi
2372 Travis Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	21d	1	0.26mi
2368 McClellanville Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$4,800	$4.20	21d	1	0.43mi
2014 Johnson Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	21d	1	0.80mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	21d	1	1.10mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,054	$1.89	21d	28	1.13mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	21d	1	1.15mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	21d	1	1.16mi
1009 Ridgeville Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,475	$2.08	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $265,000
17. 2026-04-06
    listed $275,000 Active
18. 2018-08-28
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,875
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
• − Management: −$2,553
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$574
• After-tax cash flow: $2,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+55.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,875 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.