4414 LA Jolla Dr #0 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34210

$299,225

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · Condo public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1980 $860/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Step into a high-value opportunity in the sought-after Villas at El Conquistador. A vibrant 55+ community. This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath condominium offers over 2,300 sq ft of functional living space, with a strategic location just minutes from IMG Academy, SRQ Airport, dining, beaches, and championship golf. The extensive primary suite features a balcony overlooking the golf course and a pond. The 3rd possible bedroom is located on the first floor and boasts a walk-in closet, attached bathroom, and an ELEVATOR. You will also find a built-in wet bar for entertaining. The 2nd upstairs bedroom has a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. At the same time, the open living/dining

Key facts

• Masonry construction
• Water views
• Built in wet bar

Tags

• BUILT IN WET BAR
• OPEN LIVING DINING CONCEPT
• SUN ROOM
• WATER VIEWS
• MASONRY CONSTRUCTION
• WATERFRONT LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact: Tracy Ashby
• Financial info: Total annual community fees $10,320; Total monthly community fees $860; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with required approval; Monthly association fee $675 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves fund, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, pest control, private road); Monthly condo fee $185; Community pool; Deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed (max 100 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Sprinkler (recycled); Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential villa; Two stories; Faces south; Second-floor unit
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-building complex (building number 3)
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Storage; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Elevator; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 701 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,222/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 895% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $299k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,318 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.84%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-21,104
• Equity at exit: $44,615

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,716
• Equity at exit: $25,872

Cash invested: $83,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,569
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,977/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$860
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$887
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,441

Max offer price $299,225

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,806
• Closing costs: $8,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4408 La Jolla Dr Unit 19A Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2378	$3,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.04mi
4334 Mirabella Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2172	$6,500	$2.99	12d	1	0.17mi
4358 Mirabella Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,950	$1.62	24d	1	0.20mi
3503 Avenida Madera Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	2259	$4,500	$1.99	24d	1	0.25mi
3411 Avenida Madera Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.48mi
5522 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$6,000	$2.94	24d	1	0.56mi
5514 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$6,000	$2.94	3d	1	0.58mi
5461 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2719	$6,800	$2.50	24d	1	0.61mi
5469 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2719	$7,500	$2.76	24d	1	0.61mi
5531 46th Ct W #5531 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$5,900	$2.89	24d	1	0.65mi
5530 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$5,300	$2.60	3d	1	0.65mi
5433 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$5,400	$2.57	24d	1	0.65mi
3705 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$4,700	$2.85	16d	1	0.66mi
3705 54th Dr W #201 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$5,500	$3.33	16d	1	0.66mi
3705 54th Dr W Unit N202 Bradenton, FL	4.0	4.0	2400	$7,500	$3.12	16d	1	0.66mi
5425 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$5,000	$2.45	3d	1	0.67mi
3510 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,500	$3.06	3d	1	0.74mi
3510 54th Dr W #102 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1981	$5,900	$2.98	16d	1	0.74mi
3510 54th Dr W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,000	$2.79	3d	1	0.74mi
5508 Summit Pointe Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2499	$3,995	$1.60	24d	1	0.75mi
5628 Summit Pointe Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.81mi
6462 Wild Oak Bay Blvd #243 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,100	$2.58	24d	1	0.83mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,500	$1.78	24d	3	0.84mi
6472 Seagull Dr #306 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,595	$1.63	24d	1	0.86mi
6104 Champions Row St Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2623	$6,500	$2.48	24d	1	0.97mi
5125 39th St W Unit 1545695P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,526	$2.84	14d	1	1.01mi
6233 Champions Row St Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2182	$6,400	$2.93	24d	1	1.03mi
577 Lakeside Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1728	$2,000	$1.16	24d	1	1.10mi
6439 Georgia Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1614	$2,095	$1.30	10d	1	1.11mi
3441 51st Avenue Cir W Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$3,900	$2.14	24d	1	1.15mi
434 Palm Tree Dr #434 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1728	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	1.25mi
4701 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1977	$3,000	$1.52	3d	1	1.30mi
6406 Turtle Grass Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2448	$6,500	$2.66	24d	1	1.32mi
5607 20th St W Unit 5607 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1988	$1,900	$0.96	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $860 · $10,320/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,225 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,225 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,225 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,225 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,225 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,225 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,225 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,225 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,225 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,225 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,225 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,225 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,225 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,225 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $299,225
16. 2025-11-21
    listed $315,000 Active
17. 1985-04-01
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,977 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,977
• − Insurance: −$1,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,053
• − Management: −$4,053
• − HOA: −$10,320
• − Depreciation: −$8,705
• Taxable income: $3,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $6,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+172.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $299,225 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,977 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.