4088 Jersey Covington Rd · Jersey, GA 30014

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1954 1.00 ac lot $190/sqft · 5% above area Est $237k · 5% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 2 parking spaces; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable, electricity, and natural gas available
• Home design: One-level home; Accessible approach with ramp; Resale condition
• Construction: Brick 4 sides construction; Composition roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built on 1 acre (legal description)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio/porch; Asphalt road frontage on a private road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level; Master bedroom on main
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; No common walls; Other interior features; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Mud room laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.3% in Jersey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#584 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Walton County (rural): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #31 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Grove Elementary School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #402 of 1,228 statewide, top 33%, 727 students, 42% FRL); Youth Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #140 of 470 statewide, top 30%, 1,236 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove High School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #49 of 424 statewide, top 11%, 1,450 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 486 active listings in the ZIP; 677 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,499 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,000
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 5.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4088 Jersey Covington Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,316 (0%)	0mo	$237,000	$180	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-52,231
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-72,270
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,401/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,939

Max offer price $229,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-43	+0% $-114	+5% $-185	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-185	+0% $-114	+5% $-43	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-50	base $-114	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

2. 2026-05-17
   status Under Contract 1125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

3. 2026-05-13
   listed $250,000 Active 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

4. 2026-05-13
   listed $250,000 New 1125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

5. 2026-05-12
   historical $250,000 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

6. 2026-05-12
   historical $250,000 1125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   Country living at its finest - a timeless, four-sided solid brick home set on a private one-acre sanctuary. Tucked away from the rush, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence welcomes you with a cozy great room drenched in natural light from plentiful windows, where quiet mornings with coffee and evenings by the glow of sunset feel effortless and true. Imagine wide skies and the gentle hush of nature just beyond your yard: mature trees, room for a generous garden, a play area, or a workshop - all buffered by larger surrounding parcels that preserve your sense of seclusion and peace. The durable brick exterior promises low-maintenance living and classic curb appeal, while the interior offers a warm, inviting layout ready for personal touches and thoughtful updates. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a peaceful primary home, or a place to raise a family with room to roam, this property delivers the rare combination of comfort, privacy, and country charm. Come experience the simple pleasures of slower living - where every window frames a restful view and every day feels like a breath of fresh air.

7. 2022-03-18
   historical
8. 2022-02-26
   status Active
9. 2022-02-22
   historical
10. 2022-02-17
    status Under Contract
11. 2022-02-17
    historical
12. 2022-02-09
    status Under Contract
13. 2022-01-30
    status Active
14. 2022-01-27
    historical
15. 2022-01-19
    status Under Contract
16. 2022-01-11
    price $209,000
17. 2021-11-27
    listed $224,000 New
18. 2014-11-15
    historical
19. 2014-11-08
    status Back On Market
20. 2014-11-04
    historical
21. 2014-10-15
    status Back On Market
22. 2014-09-29
    status Under Contract
23. 2014-08-06
    price $77,900 Reduced
24. 2014-06-03
    listed $79,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,401 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,300 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$899/yr (+$75/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,401
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton County
• NCES district ID: 1305390
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,716
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #4643
• State rank: #31 of 174 in GA

Livability — Jersey

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #25704

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,098 people
• By 2030: 102,496 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 110,318 · +12.5%
• By 2050: 115,848 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 125,830 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 123,852 · +26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.7% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+49.2 2016: R+56.4 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+52.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+196.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $237,000 FMLS
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $237,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $250,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $250,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $250,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-18 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-02-26 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-02-22 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-02-17 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-02-17 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-02-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-01-30 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-01-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-01-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-01-11 Price Changed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2021-11-27 Listed $224,000 GAMLS
• 2014-11-15 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-11-08 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-11-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-10-15 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-09-29 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-08-06 Price Changed $77,900 GAMLS
• 2014-06-03 Listed $79,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,401 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.