944 Hill St · Bristol, TN 37620

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1910 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! Can be lived in as is, or be used to customize as you see fit.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 35.5% vs local median 3.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol (urban): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #29 of 139 in TN (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 308 students, 0% FRL); Bristol Tennessee Middle School (math 37% / reading 29%, grade F, #77 of 333 statewide, top 24%, 883 students, 0% FRL); Tennessee High School (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #75 of 332 statewide, top 24%, 1,154 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $40k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.36%
• DSCR: 5.64
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,058
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 Wilson Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,328 (-4%)	7mo	$90,000	$68	83
1412 Anderson St	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,382 (-0%)	2mo	$235,000	$170	70
813 Haynes St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,215 (-12%)	4mo	$151,500	$125	60
943 Shelby St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (-13%)	5mo	$115,000	$96	55
1107 Holston Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,525 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$187	55
1112 Cedar St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (+4%)	9mo	$140,000	$97	52
1836 Anderson St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+3%)	4mo	$235,000	$165	50
855 Marion Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+9%)	2mo	$280,000	$185	44
1324 Holly Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+6%)	9mo	$225,000	$153	44
1405 Newton St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-13%)	4mo	$160,000	$133	41
1106 Cedar St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-12%)	7mo	$199,900	$163	40
420 Douglas St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,588 (+15%)	8mo	$227,000	$143	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $55,596
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.47×
• Total profit: $128,460
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37620

• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $974

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $997	-5% $985	+0% $974	+5% $963	+10% $951
Rent	-10% $846	-5% $910	+0% $974	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,102
Rate	-1.0pp $994	-0.5pp $984	base $974	+0.5pp $964	+1.0pp $953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1216 Norway St Unit 102 Bristol, VA	2.0	1.0	1215	$1,600	$1.32	14d	1	0.56mi
1718 Clifton Rd Bristol, TN	3.0	1.5	1672	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	0.58mi
1405 Newton St Bristol, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	14d	1	0.61mi
700 W Cedar St Bristol, TN	2.0	1.0	921	$1,600	$1.74	22d	1	0.73mi
2114 Broad St Bristol, TN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	14d	1	0.86mi
1136 Moorland Ave Bristol, VA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,250	$1.34	45d	1	0.99mi
924 Maryland Ave Unit F Bristol, TN	2.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	14d	1	1.28mi
145 Midway St Unit 1397968P Bristol, VA	3.0	2.0	1388	$5,335	$3.84	22d	1	1.33mi
1308 Columbia Rd Bristol, TN	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,375	$1.15	22d	1	1.35mi
60 Maple Tree Dr Bristol, TN	2.0	1.0	944	$1,350	$1.43	22d	1	1.36mi
2510 Catherine St Bristol, VA	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,500	$1.76	14d	1	1.43mi
279 Reservoir St Bristol, VA	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	14d	1	1.45mi
203 Opal Ln Unit 4 Bristol, VA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	22d	1	1.46mi
308 Emerald Dr Unit 308 Bristol, VA	2.0	1.5	970	$1,200	$1.24	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $40,000 Active
3. 1988-09-13
   soldstatus $16,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $11,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,825
• After-tax cash flow: $8,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol
• NCES district ID: 4700360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,018
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6376
• State rank: #29 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #5413

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• City population: 38,494
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,494
• Household income: $56,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.12%
• Current HPI: 263.38
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+146.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $40,000 TVRMLS
• 1988-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $16,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +33.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.