3110 Gray St · Houston, TX 77004

$199,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1926 5,000 sqft lot $124/sqft · 45% below area Est $363k · 45% under ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime investment opportunity in a rapidly developing area just minutes from Downtown Houston. Situated on a 5,000 sqft lot, a flexible-use property to adapt to your vision. Suitable for a custom home, townhome, or multi-family development; buyer to independently verify all restrictions and intended use. Surrounded by new construction and significant redevelopment. This property presents excellent potential for future value in a highly sought-after location. Convenient access to I-45 and I-69, with close proximity to Downtown Houston, major universities, and the Texas Medical Center. Offers strong potential for rental income or redevelopment. No HOA restrictions. Property is being Sold AS-IS. Don't miss out - Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• New construction
• Custom home
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• MULTI-FAMILY DEVELOPMENT
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• SOLD AS-IS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,545 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,014
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -45.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1768 Aden Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,688 (+4%)	1mo	$309,500	$183	78
1762 Aden Mist Dr	0.18mi	2/2.5	1,540 (-5%)	2mo	$282,000	$183	76
1722 Aden Mist Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,688 (+4%)	5mo	$309,000	$183	73
2409 Webster St	0.35mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,647 (+2%)	2mo	$397,500	$241	68
2306 Hadley St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,582 (-2%)	3mo	$339,000	$214	63
1216 Sampson St	0.59mi	2/2.5	1,729 (+7%)	2mo	$349,000	$202	53
2915 Pease St	0.29mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,795 (+11%)	3mo	$349,000	$194	52
1408 Milby St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (-5%)	2mo	$271,500	$177	51
901 Mckinney Park Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+2%)	0mo	$300,000	$183	51
1208 Sampson St	0.60mi	2/2.5	1,729 (+7%)	5mo	$349,990	$202	50
3419 Tuam St	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,732 (+7%)	7mo	$349,000	$202	48
2528 Live Oak St	0.38mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,790 (+11%)	3mo	$382,500	$214	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,629
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,280
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77004

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,329/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $313	+0% $256	+5% $200	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $165	+0% $256	+5% $348	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $307	base $256	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3034 Gray St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2081	$3,000	$1.44	44d	1	0.07mi
3309 Webster St Unit 1472545P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$3,335	$2.50	0d	1	0.20mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,215	$1.06	16d	1	0.36mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,245	$1.08	0d	1	0.36mi
3131 Leeland St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1966	$2,850	$1.45	25d	1	0.39mi
3517 McIlhenny St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2000	$3,200	$1.60	4d	1	0.51mi
2425 Bell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,806	$3.26	0d	72	0.56mi
2102 Gray St Unit Na Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1267	$2,200	$1.74	22d	1	0.58mi
3012 Live Oak St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	21d	1	0.59mi
2340 Polk St Unit EEL1 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,775	$1.69	44d	1	0.67mi
1800 St Joseph Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	8d	3	0.76mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Unit 1837 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,769	$1.58	11d	1	0.76mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,775	$1.59	0d	1	0.76mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,780	$1.59	5d	1	0.76mi
1920 Hamilton St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,160	$1.93	44d	1	0.76mi
3719 Elgin St Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.0	1241	$1,112	$0.90	25d	14	0.77mi
2501 McKinney St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,634	$1.35	0d	1	0.78mi
2501 McKinney St Unit CRT2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,634	$1.35	3d	1	0.78mi
2216 Chenevert St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1380	$2,800	$2.03	25d	3	0.80mi
2216 Chenevert St Unit 1256832P Houston, TX	1.0	1.5	1097	$4,034	$3.68	3d	1	0.80mi
2816 Rusk St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2107	$2,800	$1.33	44d	1	0.82mi
2357 Jackson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1908	$2,500	$1.31	22d	1	0.84mi
2504 Rusk St Unit 1563174P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1819	$4,036	$2.22	3d	1	0.87mi
3507 Canfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	25d	1	0.89mi
4001 Dallas St Unit 1029264P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2174	$5,077	$2.34	6d	1	0.91mi
2424 Capitol St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,634	$1.35	44d	1	0.96mi
4009 Lamar St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,699	$1.24	0d	1	0.97mi
2809 Crawford St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1928	$2,600	$1.35	44d	1	0.98mi
3015 Isabella St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,399	$0.96	0d	1	0.98mi
2418 Texas Ave Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1210	$1,956	$1.62	44d	1	1.00mi
2209 Alabama St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2074	$2,350	$1.13	44d	1	1.01mi
2111 Austin St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,562	$2.60	6d	25	1.02mi
1721 Stuart St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1758	$1,095	$0.62	44d	1	1.03mi
1515 Austin St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1120	$3,679	$3.28	0d	16	1.07mi
1711 Caroline St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$2,945	$3.28	0d	36	1.08mi
1300 Leeland St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,864	$1.50	44d	1	1.11mi
1217 Pierce St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,058	$1.65	44d	1	1.12mi
3603 Chenevert St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,129	$2.09	14d	8	1.13mi
1216 Jefferson St Houston, TX	1.0	2.0	1216	$2,280	$1.88	44d	1	1.13mi
3609 Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,749	$1.50	20d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Pending 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Pending 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Pending 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Pending 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Pending 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $199,500 Pending 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,500 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,500 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-05-11
    status Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity in a rapidly developing area just minutes from Downtown Houston. Situated on a 5,000 sqft lot, a flexible-use property to adapt to your vision. Suitable for a custom home, townhome, or multi-family development; buyer to independently verify all restrictions and intended use. Surrounded by new construction and significant redevelopment. This property presents excellent potential for future value in a highly sought-after location. Convenient access to I-45 and I-69, with close proximity to Downtown Houston, major universities, and the Texas Medical Center. Offers strong potential for rental income or redevelopment. No HOA restrictions. Property is being Sold AS-IS. Don't miss out - Schedule your appointment today!

13. 2026-03-31
    status Pending 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity in a rapidly developing area just minutes from Downtown Houston. Situated on a 5,000 sqft lot, a flexible-use property to adapt to your vision. Suitable for a custom home, townhome, or multi-family development; buyer to independently verify all restrictions and intended use. Surrounded by new construction and significant redevelopment. This property presents excellent potential for future value in a highly sought-after location. Convenient access to I-45 and I-69, with close proximity to Downtown Houston, major universities, and the Texas Medical Center. Offers strong potential for rental income or redevelopment. No HOA restrictions. Property is being Sold AS-IS. Don't miss out - Schedule your appointment today!

14. 2026-03-27
    status Pending 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity in a rapidly developing area just minutes from Downtown Houston. Situated on a 5,000 sqft lot, a flexible-use property to adapt to your vision. Suitable for a custom home, townhome, or multi-family development; buyer to independently verify all restrictions and intended use. Surrounded by new construction and significant redevelopment. This property presents excellent potential for future value in a highly sought-after location. Convenient access to I-45 and I-69, with close proximity to Downtown Houston, major universities, and the Texas Medical Center. Offers strong potential for rental income or redevelopment. No HOA restrictions. Property is being Sold AS-IS. Don't miss out - Schedule your appointment today!

15. 2026-02-03
    listed $199,500 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity in a rapidly developing area just minutes from Downtown Houston. Situated on a 5,000 sqft lot, a flexible-use property to adapt to your vision. Suitable for a custom home, townhome, or multi-family development; buyer to independently verify all restrictions and intended use. Surrounded by new construction and significant redevelopment. This property presents excellent potential for future value in a highly sought-after location. Convenient access to I-45 and I-69, with close proximity to Downtown Houston, major universities, and the Texas Medical Center. Offers strong potential for rental income or redevelopment. No HOA restrictions. Property is being Sold AS-IS. Don't miss out - Schedule your appointment today!

16. 2023-09-16
    historical
17. 2023-07-09
    listed $475,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,329 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,329 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$5,329
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,224
• − Management: −$2,224
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $43
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $3,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,997
• Household income: $71,199
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.34%
• Current HPI: 199.6066
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-58.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2023-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-07-09 Listed $475,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,329 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.