186 Jones Hill Rd · West Haven, CT 06516

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1878 0.84 ac lot Est $561k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Steeped in history and rich with potential, this 1878 antique farmhouse in West Haven's sought-after West Shore neighborhood is ready for its next chapter. Set on a rare . 84-acre parcel-just moments from the shoreline-it offers a unique combination of space, character, and opportunity. A sweeping staircase welcomes you inside, setting the tone for the home's timeless appeal. Original doors, wood floors throughout, and generously scaled rooms reflect craftsmanship from another era. Every corner hints at what once was, and what could be again. Once a two-family home, now configured as a single-family residence, the layout offers flexibility for today's needs. Restore, reimagine, or redesign,

Key facts

• 0.84 acre lot
• Built 1878
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic system; Above-ground fuel tank
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Lightly wooded, level lot; Wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil-fired); Propane hot water; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; One fireplace; Ceiling fans; Full unfinished basement; Attic that is floored and walk-up
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($538/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $371k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in West Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in CT, #915 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D.
• West Haven School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #121 of 153 in CT (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Haven High School (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #135 of 194 statewide, top 70%, 1,780 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,713/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 2671% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 88% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $375k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $371,327 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $561,295
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Peppermill Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,355 (+3%)	8mo	$600,000	$255	65
92 Contact Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	2,384 (+4%)	15mo	$491,500	$206	64
14 Homesteader Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,364 (+3%)	20mo	$375,000	$159	63
272 Jones Hill Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,988 (-13%)	10mo	$455,000	$229	59
6 Apple Tree Ter	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,080 (-9%)	12mo	$511,000	$246	59
116 Milton Ave	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,392 (+4%)	12mo	$585,000	$245	56
30 Wayne Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,245 (-2%)	18mo	$609,000	$271	51
20 Pamela Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,358 (+3%)	8mo	$550,000	$233	50
12 Scott St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,075 (-9%)	10mo	$665,000	$320	42
137 Ocean Ave	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,995 (-13%)	18mo	$1,230,000	$617	41
187 Milton Ave	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,144 (-6%)	20mo	$439,000	$205	41
73 Perry Merrill Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,170 (-5%)	21mo	$380,000	$175	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-54,278
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-28,437
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06516

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$766 /mo · $9,190/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$780
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,656

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $151	+0% $45	+5% $-61	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-102	+0% $45	+5% $192	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $140	base $45	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Woodruff St West Haven, CT	4.0	2.5	1914	$8,000	$4.18	5d	1	0.65mi
48 Beach Ave Milford, CT	4.0	1.5	2342	$3,700	$1.58	5d	1	1.04mi
22 Usher St Milford, CT	3.0	2.5	2344	$4,500	$1.92	46d	1	1.10mi
1010 Ocean Ave West Haven, CT	3.0	3.0	2330	$4,500	$1.93	46d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $375,000 Under Contract 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $375,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-25
   historical $375,000
4. 2017-07-28
   historical
5. 2015-05-15
   soldstatus $150,000
6. 2014-12-27
   listed $199,900
7. 2014-12-21
   historical
8. 2014-10-21
   historical
9. 2014-07-14
   listed $217,000
10. 2014-04-21
    listed $199,900
11. 1992-10-16
    soldstatus $73,359

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,190 · $766/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,190 · $766/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$9,190
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,565
• − Management: −$3,565
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$5,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $1,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0904950
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,405
• Composite: 28.05/100
• National rank: #6840
• State rank: #121 of 153 in CT

Livability — West Haven

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #915

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 55,351
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 55,351
• Household income: $74,382
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2671.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.86%
• Current HPI: 307.0655
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.90%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+411.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Coming Soon $375,000 Smart MLS
• 2017-07-28 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2015-05-15 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Smart MLS
• 2014-12-27 Listed $199,900 Smart MLS
• 2014-12-21 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2014-10-21 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2014-07-14 Listed $217,000 Smart MLS
• 2014-04-21 Listed $199,900 Smart MLS
• 1992-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $73,359 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $9,190 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.