508 N 5th St · Lott, TX 76656

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2009

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home featuring a modern kitchen with stone countertops and appliances included. Spacious privacy fenced yard perfect for children or pets, located in a quiet and friendly neighborhood.

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• Modern kitchen
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVACY FENCED YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,493 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, crime F.
• Rosebud-Lott ISD (rural): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #592 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $20,637
• Equity at exit: $46,686

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $63,495
• Equity at exit: $68,263

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76656

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $213	+0% $180	+5% $148	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $131	+0% $180	+5% $229	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $209	base $180	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   listing id $115,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 229-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$87
• After-tax cash flow: $2,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosebud-Lott ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,597
• Composite: 26.66/100
• National rank: #7167
• State rank: #592 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lott

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1493
• US rank: #25506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lott, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,478

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Current HPI: 110.3456
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+204.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-06-13 Listed $37,800 CTXMLS
• 2008-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,845 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.