3416 S Lincoln Ave · Springfield, IL 62704

$84,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 729 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

4,640 sqft lot $115/sqft · 19% below area Est $103k · 19% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac on a large fenced lot, just minutes from all the West side conveniences. New Roof and Garage Door 2025. Inside, you'll find a bright eat-in kitchen, complete with stove and refrigerator, along with a convenient laundry/mud room. Washer and dryer are included. Enjoy the privacy of the expansive fenced yard while being close to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A wonderful opportunity in a desirable location! Great starter home or investment property. Just minutes to Scheels and New Sports Dome. Owner selling as-is, inspections allowed.

Key facts

• 4,640 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $76,440 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.76%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,226
• List price: $84,000
• Delta: -18.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 W Grand Ct	0.43mi	2/1.0	746 (+2%)	9mo	$115,000	$154	69
2 Reed Ct	0.58mi	2/1.0	749 (+3%)	9mo	$144,000	$192	61
13 Barbara Ct	0.58mi	2/1.0	750 (+3%)	12mo	$90,000	$120	58
1529 W Reed Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	10mo	$149,000	$190	51
2901 S Glenwood Ave	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (+10%)	20mo	$57,500	$72	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $9,790
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $50,226
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62704

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $831/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $690

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $333	+0% $309	+5% $285	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $266	+0% $309	+5% $352	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $330	base $309	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1666 Seven Pines Rd Springfield, IL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,167	$1.14	21d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $84,000 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $84,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $84,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $84,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   price $84,000 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac on a large fenced lot, just minutes from all the West side conveniences. New Roof and Garage Door 2025. Inside, you'll find a bright eat-in kitchen, complete with stove and refrigerator, along with a convenient laundry/mud room. Washer and dryer are included. Enjoy the privacy of the expansive fenced yard while being close to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A wonderful opportunity in a desirable location! Great starter home or investment property. Just minutes to Scheels and New Sports Dome. Owner selling as-is, inspections allowed.

6. 2026-04-17
   price $87,000 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac on a large fenced lot, just minutes from all the West side conveniences. New Roof and Garage Door 2025. Inside, you'll find a bright eat-in kitchen, complete with stove and refrigerator, along with a convenient laundry/mud room. Washer and dryer are included. Enjoy the privacy of the expansive fenced yard while being close to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A wonderful opportunity in a desirable location! Great starter home or investment property. Just minutes to Scheels and New Sports Dome. Owner selling as-is, inspections allowed.

7. 2026-04-01
   price $92,000 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac on a large fenced lot, just minutes from all the West side conveniences. New Roof and Garage Door 2025. Inside, you'll find a bright eat-in kitchen, complete with stove and refrigerator, along with a convenient laundry/mud room. Washer and dryer are included. Enjoy the privacy of the expansive fenced yard while being close to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A wonderful opportunity in a desirable location! Great starter home or investment property. Just minutes to Scheels and New Sports Dome. Owner selling as-is, inspections allowed.

8. 2026-02-22
   listed $98,900 Active 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac on a large fenced lot, just minutes from all the West side conveniences. New Roof and Garage Door 2025. Inside, you'll find a bright eat-in kitchen, complete with stove and refrigerator, along with a convenient laundry/mud room. Washer and dryer are included. Enjoy the privacy of the expansive fenced yard while being close to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A wonderful opportunity in a desirable location! Great starter home or investment property. Just minutes to Scheels and New Sports Dome. Owner selling as-is, inspections allowed.

9. 2026-01-16
   historical $98,900 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom home situated on a quiet cul-de-sac on a large fenced lot, just minutes from all the West side conveniences. New Roof and Garage Door 2025. Inside, you'll find a bright eat-in kitchen, complete with stove and refrigerator, along with a convenient laundry/mud room. Washer and dryer are included. Enjoy the privacy of the expansive fenced yard while being close to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A wonderful opportunity in a desirable location! Great starter home or investment property. Just minutes to Scheels and New Sports Dome. Owner selling as-is, inspections allowed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,369 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 64.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$831
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $2,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$598
• After-tax cash flow: $3,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,046
• Household income: $69,976
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1529.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.79%
• Current HPI: 156.7086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $84,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $87,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $92,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $98,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Coming Soon $98,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $831 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.