20733 Maple Grv · San Antonio, TX 78264

$212,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $135/sqft · 15% below area Est $251k · 15% under $51/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $213k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-560/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,878 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,794
• List price: $212,999
• Delta: -15.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 Duke Rd	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,800 (+14%)	22mo	$438,500	$244	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $33,592
• Equity at exit: $107,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $110,988
• Equity at exit: $174,973

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$266 /mo · $3,195/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $206,248

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,999 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,999 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,999 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,999 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,999 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,999 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,999 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $212,999 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $212,999 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $212,999 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $212,999 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $212,999 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $212,999 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $212,999 Price Change 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $218,999 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $221,999 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $224,999 New 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$3,195
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$4,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$999
• After-tax cash flow: $439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new single-family home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a spacious floor plan and a clean exterior. It is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. Consider adding landscaping and smart home features to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's market value.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add a smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's market value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $218,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $221,999 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Listed $224,999 LERA