Dawson Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$260,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily · 501 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawson is a charming single-story home floorplan that boasts 1,485 square feet of functional living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a front-loading 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 501 days

🏗️ New construction. The $260,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,440.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 501 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,882 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 501 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.92%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,440
• List price: $260,490
• Delta: -2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-1%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	76
928 Gentle Moss Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+4%)	1mo	$239,000	$154	67
715 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-4%)	1mo	$240,990	$170	61
407 Rosebank Rnch	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,319 (-11%)	1mo	$237,000	$180	60
719 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-5%)	1mo	$245,990	$175	60
486 Southern Magnolia Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-4%)	3mo	$243,990	$172	58
490 Southern Magnolia Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-5%)	3mo	$244,990	$174	56
574 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+9%)	1mo	$269,990	$167	53
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+8%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	52
434 Southern Magnolia Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-14%)	1mo	$240,990	$189	49
723 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-12%)	2mo	$239,990	$183	48
710 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-14%)	1mo	$237,990	$187	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $117,673
• Equity at exit: $241,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $356,204
• Equity at exit: $521,521

Cash invested: $75,163 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,408
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,027/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $214,776

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-278	+0% $-371	+5% $-464	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-445	+0% $-371	+5% $-297	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-236	-0.5pp $-303	base $-371	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,110
• Closing costs: $8,053
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.28mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	24d	1	0.40mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	7d	1	0.57mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.58mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.68mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.77mi
811 Cloyd Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	984	$1,250	$1.27	0d	12	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,490 Active 501 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,490 Active 498 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,490 Active 497 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,490 Active 496 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,490 Active 495 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,490 Active 493 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,490 Active 489 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,490 Active 488 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,490 Active 487 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,490 Active 484 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,490 Active 483 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,490 Active 482 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,490 Active 481 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,490 Active 480 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $260,490 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    The Dawson is a charming single-story home floorplan that boasts 1,485 square feet of functional living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a front-loading 2-car garage.

16. 2026-03-05
    price $259,990 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    The Dawson is a charming single-story home floorplan that boasts 1,485 square feet of functional living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a front-loading 2-car garage.

17. 2025-08-12
    price $259,490 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    The Dawson is a charming single-story home floorplan that boasts 1,485 square feet of functional living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a front-loading 2-car garage.

18. 2025-08-12
    price $258,240 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    The Dawson is a charming single-story home floorplan that boasts 1,485 square feet of functional living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a front-loading 2-car garage.

19. 2025-02-06
    listed $259,490 Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    The Dawson is a charming single-story home floorplan that boasts 1,485 square feet of functional living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a front-loading 2-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,037
• − Property taxes: −$4,027
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$7,809
• Taxable loss: −$9,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,226
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $260,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $259,490 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $258,240 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Listed $259,490 Zillow