3116 Ellerslie Ave · Baltimore, MD 21218

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Townhouse public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1920 871 sqft lot $110/sqft · 19% below area Est $154k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD OWNED HOME SOLD AS-IS, EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. FHA INSURABLE W/ $1,008 IN ESCROW. LEAD BASED PAINT-SELLER: HAS RECORDS. BIDDING DEADLINE ENDS 4/9/06 @ 11:59PM. CASE #241-599752.

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 49 days

Tags

• WALK TO STADIUM PLACE
• WALK TO WEINBERG YMCA
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Above-grade other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Dining area; Basement with full height and connecting stairway; Estimated living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $125k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.72%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,287
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -18.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2956 Greenmount Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-1%)	1mo	$209,395	$185	82
616 E 30th St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-4%)	2mo	$65,000	$60	80
608 Chestnut Hill Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (+1%)	1mo	$73,000	$63	64
604 E 35th St E	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+10%)	1mo	$94,000	$75	63
728 Bartlett Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	2mo	$40,000	$36	62
515 E 35th St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+10%)	1mo	$135,999	$108	61
2559 Garrett Ave	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,202 (+5%)	2mo	$205,000	$171	55
3626 Kimble Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+12%)	2mo	$310,000	$242	52
646 E 37th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+13%)	0mo	$94,000	$73	48
3405 Greenway #302	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,221 (+7%)	1mo	$265,000	$217	48
1632 E 31st St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+12%)	0mo	$94,500	$74	47
3633 Elkader Rd	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$203	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,783
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $30,180
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,013/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $465	+0% $429	+5% $394	+10% $359
Rent	-10% $291	-5% $360	+0% $429	+5% $499	+10% $568
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $461	base $429	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
936 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,450	$1.15	25d	1	0.11mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	16d	1	0.12mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	12d	1	0.14mi
3012 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	19d	1	0.14mi
2821 Mathews St Unit 27-668 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	730	$1,050	$1.44	25d	1	0.27mi
519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	5d	1	0.33mi
724 E 35th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,000	$1.46	16d	1	0.33mi
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	45d	1	0.34mi
1040 E 33rd St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,525	$1.97	4d	10	0.39mi
402 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	45d	1	0.40mi
721 E 36th St Unit Na Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,650	$1.43	45d	1	0.41mi
3529 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,575	$1.20	45d	1	0.45mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	19d	1	0.46mi
3126 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,770	$2.53	4d	1	0.47mi
3130 Guilford Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,790	$2.56	19d	1	0.47mi
450 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	45d	1	0.48mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,875	$1.40	45d	1	0.49mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,875	$1.40	25d	1	0.49mi
2606 Cecil Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.51mi
400 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	0.51mi
411 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	25d	1	0.52mi
2535 Greenmount Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	45d	1	0.54mi
3221 The Alameda Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	25d	1	0.57mi
612 Chestnut Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	45d	1	0.58mi
3201 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1532	$3,200	$2.09	4d	1	0.59mi
2516 Barclay St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	17d	1	0.59mi
1519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	45d	1	0.60mi
3721 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,603	$1.79	3d	1	0.62mi
3501 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	916	$2,700	$2.95	3d	172	0.63mi
3601 Greenway #101 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	5d	1	0.66mi
2637 Saint Paul St Unit 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	5d	1	0.66mi
646 Cokesbury Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,299	$1.08	45d	1	0.69mi
1702 E 32nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,300	$1.71	45d	1	0.71mi
1 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,500	$2.39	5d	2	0.73mi
1502 Fernley Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,800	$2.07	45d	1	0.74mi
2310 Aisquith St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	5d	1	0.74mi
1802 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	25d	1	0.79mi
1504 Upshire Rd Unit 1E Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	0.80mi
2752 Maryland Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	19d	1	0.80mi
2440 Saint Paul St Unit 4E Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	891	$1,625	$1.82	45d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $153,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $153,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $153,000 Active 455-char remark
16. 2006-05-17
    soldstatus $70,000 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    HUD OWNED HOME SOLD AS-IS, EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. FHA INSURABLE W/ $1,008 IN ESCROW. LEAD BASED PAINT-SELLER: HAS RECORDS. BIDDING DEADLINE ENDS 4/9/06 @ 11:59PM. CASE #241-599752.

17. 2006-04-10
    historical 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    HUD OWNED HOME SOLD AS-IS, EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. FHA INSURABLE W/ $1,008 IN ESCROW. LEAD BASED PAINT-SELLER: HAS RECORDS. BIDDING DEADLINE ENDS 4/9/06 @ 11:59PM. CASE #241-599752.

18. 2006-03-31
    listed $62,000 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    HUD OWNED HOME SOLD AS-IS, EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. FHA INSURABLE W/ $1,008 IN ESCROW. LEAD BASED PAINT-SELLER: HAS RECORDS. BIDDING DEADLINE ENDS 4/9/06 @ 11:59PM. CASE #241-599752.

19. 2001-01-24
    soldstatus $55,900
20. 2000-12-07
    historical
21. 2000-09-07
    historical
22. 2000-09-01
    listed
23. 2000-08-25
    listed
24. 1996-06-28
    soldstatus $39,400
25. 1991-07-23
    soldstatus $12,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,013 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,013 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,013
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$824
• After-tax cash flow: $4,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+880.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-05-17 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MRIS
• 2006-04-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-03-31 Listed $62,000 MRIS
• 2001-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records
• 2000-12-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-09-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-09-01 Listed — MRIS
• 2000-08-25 Listed — MRIS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $39,400 Public Records
• 1991-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $12,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,013 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.