Elston Plan · Rossville, GA 30741

$286,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Elston floor plan at Timber Creek in Rossville is a beautiful two-story home. As you walk in, you'll find a spacious kitchen that overlooks the open concept living and dining areas. The kitchen features a large island with countertop seating and a pantry, making it perfect for anyone who loves entertaining guests. The first level also includes a half bathroom and an outdoor patio. Moving upstairs, the primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. Additionally, there are three more bedrooms that share a second full bathroom. For convenience, there is also a laundry room located on this floor. The loft located at the top of the stairs provides extra space for work or play. D. R. Horton is an Equal Housing Opportunity Builder. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from homes as built. Images may contain virtual staging.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Open concept living
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE ISLAND
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $286,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $309,340.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#484 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stone Creek Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 425 students, 84% FRL); Rossville Middle School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #368 of 470 statewide, top 79%, 444 students, 81% FRL); Ridgeland High School (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,244 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,019 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,340
• List price: $286,990
• Delta: -7.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Draft St	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,315 (+6%)	2mo	$268,375	$116	87
58 Quarter Street St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-0%)	6mo	$304,000	$140	84
313 Draft St	0.26mi	3/— (-1)	2,160 (-1%)	6mo	$304,105	$141	77
27 Quarter Street St	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,361 (+9%)	9mo	$299,200	$127	68
14 Rock Brook Cv	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (-6%)	2mo	$260,000	$127	67
44 Quarter Street St	0.10mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,361 (+9%)	10mo	$314,200	$133	65
68 Buck Creek Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-0%)	5mo	$322,400	$149	60
297 Draft St	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,361 (+9%)	10mo	$313,030	$133	59
5008 Dellwood Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,334 (+7%)	2mo	$275,000	$118	52
86 Buck Creek Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,323 (+7%)	4mo	$342,400	$147	51
321 Morning Side Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,935 (-11%)	5mo	$335,000	$173	49
148 Merry Wood Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,384 (+10%)	3mo	$325,000	$136	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-67,477
• Equity at exit: $46,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-48,642
• Equity at exit: $26,746

Cash invested: $86,615 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $303,995 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30741

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,640/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,706

Max offer price $246,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-324	+0% $-431	+5% $-538	+10% $-645
Rent	-10% $-602	-5% $-517	+0% $-431	+5% $-346	+10% $-261
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-353	base $-431	+0.5pp $-511	+1.0pp $-593

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,335
• Closing costs: $9,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Quarter St Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,185	$1.08	46d	1	0.12mi
149 Quarter St Rossville, GA	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,095	$0.97	0d	1	0.12mi
10 Draught St Rossville, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1756	$3,736	$2.13	0d	1	0.29mi
137 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	2562	$2,380	$0.93	1d	1	0.71mi
137 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	2562	$2,380	$0.93	29d	1	0.71mi
129 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	2006	$2,180	$1.09	51d	1	0.72mi
89 Buck Creek Ln Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	2562	$2,450	$0.96	154d	1	0.72mi
115 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	1825	$2,145	$1.18	154d	1	0.73mi
114 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,295	$1.43	184d	1	0.73mi
114 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,295	$1.43	164d	1	0.73mi
105 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	2323	$2,250	$0.97	154d	1	0.74mi
132 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	3.5	2252	$2,280	$1.01	29d	1	0.75mi
132 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	3.5	2252	$2,280	$1.01	1d	1	0.75mi
81 Saddlebred Way Unit NA Rossville, GA	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,149	$0.99	184d	1	0.75mi
119 Buck Creek Ln Rossville, GA	4.0	3.0	2296	$2,280	$0.99	51d	1	0.78mi
123 Buck Creek Ln Rossville, GA	4.0	3.0	2296	$2,280	$0.99	10d	1	0.78mi
1522 Happy Valley Rd Rossville, GA	4.0	2.0	1624	$1,850	$1.14	51d	1	0.80mi
702 Fricks Ln Rossville, GA	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,875	$1.15	51d	1	0.96mi
102 James St Rossville, GA	3.0	1.0	1470	$1,245	$0.85	29d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $286,990 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $286,990 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $286,990 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $286,990 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $286,990 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $286,990 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $286,990 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $286,990 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $286,990 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $286,990 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $286,990 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $286,990 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $286,990 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $286,990 Active 269 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $286,990 Active 268 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $286,990 Active 267 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $286,990 Active 266 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $286,990 Active 265 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $286,990 Active 264 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $286,990 Active 263 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $286,990 Active 262 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $286,990 Active 261 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $286,990 Active 260 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $286,990 Active 259 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $286,990 Active 258 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $286,990 Active 257 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $286,990 Active 256 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $286,990 Active 255 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $286,990 Active 254 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $286,990 Active 253 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $286,990 Active 252 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $286,990 Active 251 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $286,990 Active 250 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $286,990 Active 249 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $286,990 Active 248 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $286,990 Active 247 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $286,990 Active 246 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $286,990 Active 245 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $286,990 Active 244 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $286,990 Active 243 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $286,990 Active 242 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $286,990 Active 241 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $286,990 Active 240 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $286,990 Active 239 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $286,990 Active 238 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $286,990 Active 237 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $286,990 Active 236 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $286,990 Active 235 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $286,990 Active 234 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $286,990 Active 232 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,328
• − Property taxes: −$4,640
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$8,999
• Taxable loss: −$10,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,577
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Elston Plan at Timber Creek in Rossville is a well-maintained two-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition. Minor updates to the exterior, interior, and systems can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stone Creek Elementary School F GA #810/1,228 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Rossville Middle School F GA #368/470 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Ridgeland High School F GA #225/424 Nat'l #13,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 1305370
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,889
• Composite: 22.74/100
• National rank: #8035
• State rank: #114 of 174 in GA

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Rossville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #22540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 66,050 people
• City population: 30,041
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 30,041
• Household income: $58,834
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,050 people
• By 2030: 64,305 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 60,127 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 55,551 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 44,886 · -32.0%
• By 2100: 34,015 · -48.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 20.1% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+59.3 2016: R+61.5 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.05%
• Current HPI: 267.0047
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.44%
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Listed $312,990 Zillow