1816 S Melbourne St #9 · Cohassett Beach, WA 98595

$64,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 656 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $83/sqft · 21% below area Est $84k · 22% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take advantage of 2 months free lot rent with purchase!! Unveil coastal living in this brand-new 2 bed, 1 bath single-wide home in West Aire Park. Embrace simplicity and comfort with modern finishes-including new appliances. Lot features a carport with covered storage and a firepit in the backyard for easy outdoor enjoyment. Enjoy the serene atmosphere of the Westport community and explore nearby beaches. Ideal for those seeking a relaxed lifestyle or a weekend getaway. Don't miss this opportunity to own a turnkey home in a thriving coastal area. Pets are allowed, subject to restrictions. Please reach out to listing agent about possible financing opportunities.

Key facts

• Covered storage
• Modern finishes
• Nearby beaches

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• COVERED STORAGE
• FIREPIT IN BACKYARD
• NEARBY BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#408 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Ocosta School District (rural): math 39% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #196 of 291 in WA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 656 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $57,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 656 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.57%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,606
• List price: $64,999
• Delta: -22.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1817 S Hoquiam Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0	780 (-0%)	8mo	$299,000	$383	81
1459 S Olympia St	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-2%)	10mo	$75,000	$98	69
1021 S Forrest St	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	735 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$279	56
1701 S Aberdeen St	0.33mi	2/1.0	684 (-13%)	10mo	$119,000	$174	55
2081 S Grey Gull Ln S	0.45mi	1/2.0 (-1)	720 (-8%)	7mo	$750,000	$1,042	50
153 S Pleasant Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0	891 (+14%)	10mo	$225,000	$253	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $33,488
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $85,836
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98595

• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $512/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $64,999

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $728	-5% $710	+0% $691	+5% $673	+10% $654
Rent	-10% $581	-5% $636	+0% $691	+5% $746	+10% $801
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $708	base $691	+0.5pp $674	+1.0pp $657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Active
2. 2025-05-15
   status Active
3. 2025-05-12
   status Pending
4. 2025-02-05
   status Active
5. 2025-02-01
   historical
6. 2024-11-02
   status Active
7. 2024-10-03
   price $69,999
8. 2024-08-31
   price $72,999
9. 2024-07-10
   listed $74,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 24.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥73°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$512
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $6,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide home in West Aire Park is in good condition with modern finishes and new appliances. It's move-in ready with a fresh exterior and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocosta School District
• NCES district ID: 5306090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,877
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #8222
• State rank: #196 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cohassett Beach

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #16227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cohassett Beach, WA
• Population (ZIP): 2,591

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Scottish 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.90%
• Current HPI: 233.666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $69,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Price Changed $72,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Listed $74,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $512 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.