128 Harmon Rd · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$226,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1980 0.63 ac lot $152/sqft · 7% above area Est $285k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Home & Guest House on Three Lots Near Cedar Creek Lake. Nestled beneath a beautiful canopy of mature shade trees, this meticulously updated property sits on three lots totaling approximately 0.63 acres and offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and versatility. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend lake retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property is ready to impress. The main home features approximately 1,490 square feet of thoughtfully updated living space with abundant windows that fill the home with natural light. Inside, you'll find three spacious bedrooms, two beautifully renovated bathrooms, and an oversized living area perfect for gathering with family and friends. The updated kitchen offers ample cabinetry, generous workspace, and a convenient eating bar with granite countertops. The secondary bedrooms feature walk-in closets, while the primary suite includes two closets and a newly renovated bathroom. Adding exceptional value is the detached guest house, offering approximately 512 square feet of additional living space. Complete with its own bedroom, bathroom, full kitchen, and living area, it's ideal for extended family, guests, a private office, or rental income. The guest house is serviced by its own separate electric meter, providing added convenience and flexibility for long-term tenants or multi-generational living arrangements. Step outside to enjoy the expansive fenced backyard, providing plenty of room for pets, outdoor entertaining, a future pool, workshop, or additional storage. Additional features include covered parking, a large circular driveway, extra concrete parking pads, and all appliances conveying with the property, making this a true turnkey opportunity. Located just minutes from beautiful Cedar Creek Lake and featuring access to a community boat ramp, you'll enjoy easy access to boating, fishing, and all the recreation that lake life has to offer. Don't miss this unique opportunity to own a versatile property with endless possibilities in a sought-after lake community.

Key facts

• Guest house
• Fenced backyard
• Detached guest house

Tags

• GUEST HOUSE
• DETACHED GUEST HOUSE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• TURNKEY OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Voluntary association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); 1-car garage; Other parking features
• Utilities: Municipal utility district: No; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 1980 construction; Not attached to another property; Does not include special accessibility features; Subdivision: Lakeview Acres Sub
• Construction: Composition roof; Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Few trees on the lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level layout; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($982/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,897 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,844
• List price: $226,500
• Delta: -17.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Harmon Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+2%)	0mo	$295,000	$194	94
122 Ricky Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-2%)	9mo	$205,000	$140	74
132 Luther Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	13mo	$125,000	$85	70
143 Lisa Layne St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	11mo	$219,000	$140	70
127 Cottonwood Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+3%)	22mo	$580,000	$378	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,166
• Equity at exit: $33,772

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-47,595
• Equity at exit: $19,584

Cash invested: $63,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,188
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $226,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,625
• Closing costs: $6,795
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Cottonwood Trl Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$1,980	$1.07	44d	1	0.17mi
851 Welch Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.83mi
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	44d	1	1.21mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $226,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $226,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $226,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $226,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $226,500 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $226,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $226,500 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $235,000 Active 685-char remark
13. 2024-06-05
    historical
14. 2024-05-15
    status Active
15. 2024-05-15
    status Active
16. 2024-04-18
    historical
17. 2024-04-18
    status Pending
18. 2024-02-02
    price $175,000
19. 2024-02-02
    price $175,000
20. 2023-12-11
    status Active
21. 2023-12-11
    status Active
22. 2023-11-07
    historical
23. 2023-11-07
    status Pending
24. 2023-09-05
    listed $190,000 Active
25. 2023-09-05
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,145 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,321/yr (+$193/mo · 127.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,688
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$1,132
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$6,589
• Taxable loss: −$2,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$694
• After-tax cash flow: $1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $226,500 HCBOR
• 2026-06-05 Listed $226,500 NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-05-15 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2024-05-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-04-18 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2024-04-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $175,000 HCBOR
• 2023-12-11 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2023-12-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-11-07 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2023-11-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-09-05 Listed $190,000 HCBOR
• 2023-09-05 Listed $190,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,824 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.