10609 Stag Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76036

$294,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · Other · 262 Days on market

Built 2025 5,591 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Deer Creek in Fort Worth, TX! The Palermo floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring and tray ceilings for some dramatic flair! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with an island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42-inch cabinetry, and granite countertops. Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Deer Creek home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 inch cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TRAY CEILINGS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• ISLAND OVERLOOKING DINING
• 42 INCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($246/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: June W Davis El (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 644 students, 59% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1036 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,790 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,272
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,547
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1036
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,322

Max offer price $294,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $104	+0% $21	+5% $-63	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-72	+0% $21	+5% $113	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $96	base $21	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5020 Cervinae Rd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.5	1947	$2,550	$1.31	22d	1	0.10mi
4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,595	$1.40	14d	1	0.21mi
4633 Benham Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,000	$1.15	45d	1	0.36mi
4633 Benham Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,000	$1.15	6d	1	0.36mi
4644 Benham Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,995	$1.40	45d	1	0.38mi
4505 Greyberry Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$2,100	$1.47	20d	1	0.47mi
4533 Greenham Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	45d	1	0.55mi
10121 Wyseby Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,995	$1.23	45d	1	0.57mi
9925 Ryegrass Ter Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,350	$1.58	45d	1	0.61mi
4725 Sassafras Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,899	$1.40	45d	1	0.67mi
4444 Sagecroft Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,050	$1.34	45d	1	0.69mi
4924 Sassafras Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,350	$1.59	45d	1	0.71mi
10357 Rosegreen Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1898	$2,200	$1.16	45d	1	0.77mi
9808 Mescalbean Blvd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1729	$2,150	$1.24	45d	1	0.82mi
10321 Rosegreen Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,999	$1.22	45d	1	0.82mi
10356 Holycross Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,400	$1.31	0d	1	0.84mi
9717 Snowbell Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,195	$1.14	24d	1	0.85mi
10308 Holycross Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	0d	1	0.90mi
10308 Holycross Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,350	$1.44	26d	1	0.90mi
5609 Cookstown Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,455	$1.17	26d	1	0.91mi
4216 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,129	$1.30	0d	1	0.91mi
4213 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,050	$1.32	4d	1	0.92mi
4201 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,960	$1.40	14d	1	0.94mi
5520 McLanahan Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,195	$1.46	26d	1	0.95mi
4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	14d	1	0.96mi
4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,100	$1.43	26d	1	0.96mi
4156 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.96mi
4224 Old Timber Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$2,250	$1.08	45d	1	1.01mi
10406 Fort Cibolo Trl Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1808	$1,900	$1.05	45d	1	1.02mi
10368 Fort Crockett Trl Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,150	$1.13	26d	1	1.02mi
10432 Fort Bird Trl Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,000	$1.43	45d	1	1.03mi
5637 McLanahan Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,150	$1.43	45d	1	1.03mi
10373 Fort Belknap Trl Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,160	$1.21	45d	1	1.04mi
9724 Buffalo Ridge Rd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,125	$1.06	45d	1	1.11mi
9729 Wild Prairie Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,500	$1.55	45d	1	1.12mi
9720 Buffalo Ridge Rd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,400	$1.31	26d	1	1.12mi
9505 Cypress Lake Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,670	$1.32	26d	1	1.15mi
10356 Fort Teran Trl Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,169	$1.44	45d	1	1.16mi
10344 Fort Teran Trl Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,149	$1.44	45d	1	1.18mi
4365 Mill Stream Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$2,300	$1.44	26d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $294,990 Pending 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $294,990 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,990 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   status $309,990 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-20
   price $309,990
10. 2026-02-13
    price $322,990
11. 2026-01-02
    price $324,890
12. 2025-07-21
    price $319,890
13. 2025-07-21
    listed $321,609 Active
14. 2025-07-20
    historical
15. 2025-07-19
    price $319,890
16. 2025-06-06
    price $319,990
17. 2025-05-16
    price $321,609
18. 2025-05-12
    price $321,127
19. 2025-05-12
    status Active
20. 2025-04-01
    status Pending
21. 2025-03-21
    listed $317,661 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,977/yr (+$331/mo · 279.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $1,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $309,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $322,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $324,890 NTREIS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $319,890 NTREIS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $321,609 NTREIS
• 2025-07-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $319,890 NTREIS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $319,990 NTREIS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $321,609 NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $321,127 NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $317,661 NTREIS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.