7991 W Dixon Rd · Reese, MI 48757

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,907 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 186 Days on market

Built 1900 1.79 ac lot $60/sqft · 47% below area Est $212k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 1.79 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Tags

• REESE SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#284 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Reese Public Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #164 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Tuscola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscola County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $115k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,056
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -45.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,115
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $26,277
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48757

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-14
   price $115,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

2. 2026-04-13
   price $115,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

3. 2026-01-30
   price $125,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

4. 2026-01-29
   price $125,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

5. 2025-11-17
   listed $135,000 Active 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

6. 2025-11-17
   listed $135,000 Active 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Chip and Joanna would be jealous of what you can turn this farmhouse into! Located in the Reese school district, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built to last! Come in and bring a tool belt to see your homesteading dreams come to life! Reach out to schedule a showing today!

7. 1995-10-05
   soldstatus $70,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,124 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 136.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$466
• After-tax cash flow: $3,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reese Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2629520
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,888
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #4481
• State rank: #164 of 540 in MI

Livability — Reese

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #7001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,680

Population outlook (Tuscola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,930 people
• By 2030: 47,294 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 41,504 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 35,560 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -51.0%
• By 2100: 16,507 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+10.8 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.05%
• Current HPI: 211.8754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+63.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · -68.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.