16623 Old Fayette Rd · Tuscaloosa, AL 35475

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,169 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2007 0.72 ac lot Est $195k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD BEFORE PUBLISHED

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Half-acre lot
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• NORTHSIDE SCHOOL ZONE
• HALF-ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved road access; Lot about 0.72 acres; Subdivision: Rebekah's View

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway; Concrete surfaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($680/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walker Elementary School (math 49% / reading 63%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 760 students, 43% FRL); Northside Middle School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #81 of 257 statewide, top 33%, 405 students, 45% FRL); Northside High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 494 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,625 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,223
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16549 Old Fayette Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+3%)	15mo	$200,000	$167	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,741
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,127
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35475

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $122	+0% $57	+5% $-8	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-15	+0% $57	+5% $129	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $115	base $57	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $229,900 Active
2. 2022-04-29
   soldstatus $190,000
3. 2022-04-28
   soldstatus $190,000 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   SOLD BEFORE PUBLISHED

4. 2022-03-07
   listed $190,000 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   SOLD BEFORE PUBLISHED

5. 2017-01-27
   soldstatus $140,000
6. 2017-01-25
   soldstatus $138,900 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Country setting , close to town, Lake Tuscaloosa, shopping schools, This Magnificent home, move in ready, has 3 bedroom, 2 bath , double pantry, laundry closet, 2 car garage, covered back porch with large back yard for all those family outings , lots of storage, freshly painted. storage building CALL FOR YOUR PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY.

7. 2016-08-28
   listed $138,900 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Country setting , close to town, Lake Tuscaloosa, shopping schools, This Magnificent home, move in ready, has 3 bedroom, 2 bath , double pantry, laundry closet, 2 car garage, covered back porch with large back yard for all those family outings , lots of storage, freshly painted. storage building CALL FOR YOUR PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY.

8. 2016-01-05
   soldstatus $132,500
9. 2016-01-05
   soldstatus $141,500
10. 2015-11-09
    listed $134,900
11. 2010-07-01
    soldstatus $125,386
12. 2007-11-02
    soldstatus $124,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$797
• After-tax cash flow: $1,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,745
• Household income: $108,559
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 49.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.83%
• Current HPI: 228.4417
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+85.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $229,900 WAMLS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-28 Sold (MLS) $190,000 WAMLS
• 2022-03-07 Listed $190,000 WAMLS
• 2017-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-25 Sold (MLS) $138,900 WAMLS
• 2016-08-28 Listed $138,900 WAMLS
• 2016-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $141,500 Public Records
• 2016-01-05 Sold (MLS) $132,500 WAMLS
• 2015-11-09 Listed $134,900 WAMLS
• 2010-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $125,386 Public Records
• 2007-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,016 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.