815 124th St SW #36 · Lake Stickney, WA 98204

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1978 $100/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and inviting, this beautifully designed two-bedroom, two-bath home offers comfort, functionality and wonderful community amenities. The open floor plan features two separate living areas, a dining space, and a dedicated laundry room, creating plenty of room to relax and entertain. The private primary suite includes its own bath for added comfort and convenience. Enjoy year-round outdoor living on the large, partially covered back deck complete with shades, lighting and removable partition walls. Situated on a desirable corner lot with a 10'x18' storage shed or shop space, this home also includes an efficient heat pump to keep you comfortable through the seasons. Community amenities

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private bath
• Two living areas

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BATH
• 10X18 STORAGE SHED
• EFFICIENT HEAT PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.4% in Lake Stickney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#192 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Mukilteo School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #111 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,743/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 2874% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $159k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.62%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,278
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 124th St SW	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-8%)	2mo	$290,000	$199	80
815 124th St SW #137	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+9%)	9mo	$240,000	$139	78
815 124th St SW #52	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-9%)	4mo	$149,900	$104	76
815 124th St SW #111	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	16mo	$185,000	$122	74
815 124th St SW #27	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-9%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	72
815 124th St SW #22	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-9%)	10mo	$200,000	$139	71
815 124th St SW #94	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+12%)	11mo	$219,300	$123	70
815 124th St SW #29	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	12mo	$264,950	$184	70
11500 Meridian Ave S #49	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+2%)	3mo	$245,000	$151	62
11500 Meridian Ave S #91	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-8%)	2mo	$226,000	$155	54
12030 2nd Dr SE	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-9%)	10mo	$485,000	$338	38
11500 Meridian Ave S #101	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,782 (+12%)	16mo	$170,000	$95	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $40,890
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $100,657
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98204

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,123/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $1,173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12522 8th Ave W Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,496	$2.48	5d	8	0.16mi
12600 4th Ave W Everett, WA	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,295	$1.72	16d	1	0.24mi
222 124th St SW Unit A2 Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,975	$1.91	5d	1	0.32mi
12121 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,855	$2.56	3d	18	0.36mi
12433 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$2,849	$2.65	2d	32	0.37mi
1108 Center Rd Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	15d	1	0.43mi
12402 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,370	$2.81	2d	16	0.44mi
11727 12th Ave W #77 Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1533	$3,100	$2.02	22d	1	0.45mi
11719 12th Ave W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,800	$1.83	44d	1	0.46mi
1416 129th St SW Everett, WA	4.0	2.5	1940	$3,400	$1.75	43d	1	0.54mi
12810 15th Pl W Everett, WA	4.0	2.5	1940	$3,500	$1.80	43d	1	0.55mi
12530 Admiralty Way Unit D304 Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	5d	1	0.61mi
13004 Meridian Ave S Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,280	$2.22	2d	1	0.62mi
128 127th St SE Everett, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	884	$3,296	$3.73	2d	10	0.66mi
13412 11th Pl W Everett, WA	4.0	2.5	1966	$1,500	$0.76	12d	1	0.73mi
305 127th St SE Unit A Everett, WA	2.0	2.5	1456	$2,649	$1.82	43d	1	0.78mi
729 112th St SW Unit B3 Everett, WA	4.0	3.5	2174	$3,395	$1.56	16d	1	0.81mi
4 112th St SW Unit A Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1661	$3,300	$1.99	43d	1	0.85mi
1921 129th Pl SW Unit A Everett, WA	4.0	3.5	1883	$3,300	$1.75	12d	1	0.86mi
12118 Highway 99 Everett, WA	1.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1117	$2,236	$2.00	2d	5	0.87mi
13117 3rd Ave SE Unit J1 Everett, WA	3.0	3.0	1659	$3,249	$1.96	43d	1	0.92mi
29 112th St SE Everett, WA	4.0	2.5	1957	$3,800	$1.94	43d	1	0.93mi
11026 Meridian Dr SE Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	43d	1	0.96mi
418 138th Pl SW Everett, WA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,000	$1.88	43d	1	0.96mi
11625 Center Rd Unit C Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1608	$3,200	$1.99	43d	1	1.03mi
13921 12th Pl W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	3.5	2175	$3,600	$1.66	24d	1	1.04mi
2301 116th St SW Unit E Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,595	$1.85	43d	1	1.06mi
12523 24th Pl W Everett, WA	4.0	2.5	1989	$3,300	$1.66	5d	1	1.09mi
14029 9th Pl W Lynnwood, WA	4.0	2.5	1777	$3,200	$1.80	5d	1	1.09mi
2020 Hollow Dale Pl Unit A Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,650	$1.74	43d	1	1.15mi
609 142nd St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1646	$3,399	$2.07	43d	1	1.16mi
515 112th St SE Everett, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1050	$2,345	$2.23	3d	3	1.16mi
12318 26th Pl W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1558	$3,000	$1.93	5d	1	1.21mi
13730 Manor Way Unit F2 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	3.5	1626	$3,400	$2.09	43d	1	1.26mi
13027 27th Pl W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	2113	$3,300	$1.56	15d	1	1.30mi
13510 N Creek Dr Mill Creek, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,024	$1.98	3d	1	1.30mi
1301 124th Pl SE Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1876	$3,500	$1.87	24d	1	1.35mi
10115 Holly Dr Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,720	$2.71	10d	22	1.40mi
10115 Holly Dr Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,720	$2.71	2d	24	1.40mi
10111 9th Ave W Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1098	$2,550	$2.32	5d	4	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $159,000
15. 2026-04-18
    status Active
16. 2026-04-13
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $165,000 Active
18. 2011-12-02
    historical
19. 2011-12-02
    soldstatus $56,500 Sold
20. 2011-10-28
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2011-07-26
    price $59,995
22. 2011-06-27
    listed $67,500 Active
23. 2007-05-18
    soldstatus $59,000
24. 2007-04-02
    listed $67,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,123 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,123
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $12,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,927
• After-tax cash flow: $11,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mukilteo School District
• NCES district ID: 5305430
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $60,807
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #4733
• State rank: #111 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Stickney

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #5224

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 45,130
• Household income: $68,513
• Rent vs Own: 66.4% rent · 33.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2874.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 14% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -540.03%
• Current HPI: 321.7923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.70%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+134.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $159,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-02 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-02 Sold (MLS) $56,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-26 Price Changed $59,995 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-27 Listed $67,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-18 Sold (MLS) $59,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-02 Listed $67,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,123 · +31.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.