16078 S April Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$249,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2000 9,147 sqft lot Est $225k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to a charming and newly updated home on a corner lot in the heart of Gulfport surrounded by restaurants, shopping and easy access to I10. As you enter this home you're immediately met with an abundance of natural light and soaring vaulted ceilings. New metal roof, LVP flooring, updated kitchen with new appliances and quartz counter tops. The backyard offers a fully fenced yard, patio with ceiling fan, additional parking for boat or rv, and shed with power for hobbies or workshop. Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Natural light
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NEW METAL ROOF
• LVP FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-787/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Harrison High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #10 of 197 statewide, top 5%, 1,124 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $249k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,656 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,139
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16078 S April Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,511 (0%)	1mo	$249,000	$165	95
16103 S April Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-8%)	5mo	$209,900	$152	77
16060 S April Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+2%)	14mo	$214,000	$139	76
16233 Saddle Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-0%)	23mo	$224,900	$149	71
10333 34th Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,380 (-9%)	3mo	$85,000	$62	67
11051 Old Highway 49	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-0%)	20mo	$175,000	$116	66
16363 Lancaster Cv	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	9mo	$215,000	$139	59
10298 English Manor Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-4%)	5mo	$225,000	$155	57
10251 English Manor Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-0%)	12mo	$211,000	$140	56
16371 Lancaster Cv	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-14%)	5mo	$217,000	$166	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,095
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,527
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $999/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $237,416

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10466 Steeplechase Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,800	$1.07	13d	1	0.11mi
16222 Saddle Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,600	$0.95	20d	1	0.20mi
10261 English Manor Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	0.68mi
10667 Wren Grv Gulfport, MS	4.0	3.0	2076	$2,850	$1.37	43d	1	0.89mi
11601 Oaklane Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,525	$0.97	13d	1	0.90mi
11405 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.06mi
11413 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.06mi
11425 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	20d	1	1.06mi
11487 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.06mi
11502 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	20d	1	1.14mi
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	43d	2	1.26mi
101 Fore St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	1.34mi
14437 Whitney Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.40mi
10479 Cal Ln Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1200	$950	$0.79	20d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $249,000
3. 2026-04-06
   price $254,000
4. 2026-03-20
   price $259,000
5. 2026-03-04
   listed $267,900 Active
6. 2016-02-08
   soldstatus $122,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $999 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,967 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$968/yr (+$81/mo · 97.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$999
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+103.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $249,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $254,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $259,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Listed $267,900 MLSU
• 2016-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $999 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.