4541 N Winchester Ter · Hernando, FL 34442

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1968 9,999 sqft lot Est $250k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HURRY! HURRY! PRICED TO SELL FIXER UPPER!! 4 bedroom with a den or could be a 5 bedroom. This is a house with 1536 living area. Perfect for families or retirees. Located on a quiet street not far from the Lake. Also has a front porch and a detached shop & lean to. Handicap ramp and handicap shower. CASH BUYERS ONLY.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Metal roof
• Accessible shower

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• PIER FOUNDATION
• ACCESSIBLE SHOWER
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• DETACHED SHOP
• LOW FLOOD RISK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned MDRMH
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Home faces west; Homestead property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $205k implies a 791% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3658 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-1%)	3mo	$270,000	$178	66
3622 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+4%)	2mo	$257,500	$161	64
3748 E Lake Todd Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+0%)	11mo	$232,500	$151	58
3682 E Lake Todd Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+6%)	5mo	$265,000	$163	57
3548 E Cove Park Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+11%)	2mo	$210,000	$123	56
4497 N Lake Vista Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+5%)	3mo	$239,000	$148	56
4614 N Webster Island Ter	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+4%)	9mo	$246,000	$154	50
3564 E Cove Park Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+9%)	13mo	$295,000	$176	49
3656 E Lake Todd Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+12%)	12mo	$326,000	$190	43
3657 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-15%)	6mo	$260,000	$199	42
3637 E Lake Todd Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+13%)	12mo	$330,000	$190	41
3825 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+13%)	4mo	$240,000	$139	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,683
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $28,101
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3723 N Chandler Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,400	$1.39	20d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $205,000
17. 2026-03-28
    listed $210,000 Active
18. 2010-11-30
    soldstatus $23,000 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    HURRY! HURRY! PRICED TO SELL FIXER UPPER!! 4 bedroom with a den or could be a 5 bedroom. This is a house with 1536 living area. Perfect for families or retirees. Located on a quiet street not far from the Lake. Also has a front porch and a detached shop & lean to. Handicap ramp and handicap shower. CASH BUYERS ONLY.

19. 2010-09-10
    listed $28,000 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    HURRY! HURRY! PRICED TO SELL FIXER UPPER!! 4 bedroom with a den or could be a 5 bedroom. This is a house with 1536 living area. Perfect for families or retirees. Located on a quiet street not far from the Lake. Also has a front porch and a detached shop & lean to. Handicap ramp and handicap shower. CASH BUYERS ONLY.

20. 2009-06-03
    historical
21. 2009-01-16
    listed $47,900
22. 2003-01-24
    soldstatus $32,900
23. 1998-06-05
    soldstatus $31,000
24. 1983-03-01
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 136.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $1,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$411
• After-tax cash flow: $4,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+831.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-30 Sold (MLS) $23,000 RACC
• 2010-09-10 Listed $28,000 RACC
• 2009-06-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-16 Listed $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $32,900 Public Records
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $719 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.