Harper Plan · Ruskin, FL 33570

$321,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 295 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all-concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen overlooking the living area and back-porch. The kitchen comes with all stainless-steel appliances including a refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The primary suite is located right off the kitchen with an ensuite double sink bathroom and large walk-in closet. Towards the back of the home, you will find three additional bedrooms that share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with an included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Large walk-in closet
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENSUITE DOUBLE SINK BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• INCLUDED WASHER AND DRYER

🏗️ New construction. The $321,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,887.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ruskin Elementary School (math 30% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,009 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 781 students, 77% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 770 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,215 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,887
• List price: $321,990
• Delta: -9.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1207 12 St SE	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	1mo	$324,990	$195	89
1520 9th St SE	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,580 (-5%)	3mo	$173,500	$110	76
1473 Sourwood Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+10%)	9mo	$355,985	$195	75
1113 Humble Haven St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,612 (-3%)	2mo	$203,000	$126	60
1430 Blue Bayou Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-13%)	9mo	$300,000	$208	56
1128 Shared Passion St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (-13%)	1mo	$264,000	$183	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-96,935
• Equity at exit: $53,064

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-148,191
• Equity at exit: $30,771

Cash invested: $99,648 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 67 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $337,495 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33570

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,866
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,338/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,113

Max offer price $278,029

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-292	-5% $-415	+0% $-538	+5% $-661	+10% $-784
Rent	-10% $-730	-5% $-634	+0% $-538	+5% $-442	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-359	-0.5pp $-448	base $-538	+0.5pp $-630	+1.0pp $-724

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,972
• Closing costs: $10,677
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1251 9th St SE Ruskin, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1762	$3,492	$1.98	4d	1	0.32mi
822 Will Scarlett Ave Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,400	$1.31	10d	1	0.38mi
822 Will Scarlett Ave Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.38mi
1105 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,399	$1.16	120d	1	0.41mi
1119 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,320	$1.14	72d	1	0.41mi
801 Ace Outlaw Ave Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,475	$1.34	6d	1	0.41mi
1411 Golden Glow Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,380	$1.23	30d	1	0.51mi
809 College Chase Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,885	$1.48	0d	1	0.51mi
808 Tidal Rock Ave Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	10d	1	0.57mi
922 Larwood Pine Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,779	$1.12	6d	1	0.57mi
908 Larwood Pine Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	43d	1	0.59mi
906 Larwood Pine Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,880	$1.36	59d	1	0.59mi
1906 Blue Stream St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,000	$1.34	6d	1	0.63mi
1906 Blue Stream St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	89d	1	0.63mi
1906 Blue Stream St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,000	$1.34	4d	1	0.63mi
1107 Lauren Manor Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,056	$1.10	89d	1	0.66mi
1109 Lauren Manor Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,019	$1.28	54d	1	0.67mi
1119 Shared Passion St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,799	$1.25	27d	1	0.68mi
1122 Shared Passion St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,075	$1.30	4d	1	0.70mi
1501 21st St SE Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1618	$2,050	$1.27	86d	1	0.76mi
1677 Blue Rose Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,100	$1.14	30d	1	0.77mi
2106 Pleasant View Ave Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	64d	1	0.81mi
1029 Spotted Egret Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,999	$1.37	83d	1	0.82mi
2025 Peaceful Palm St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,600	$1.62	110d	1	0.82mi
1721 2nd St SE Ruskin, FL	4.0	1.5	1321	$1,733	$1.31	30d	1	0.90mi
226 Royal Spoonbill Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,300	$1.37	30d	1	0.94mi
226 Royal Spoonbill Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,070	$1.24	10d	1	0.94mi
2306 Lawrence Hall St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,100	$1.21	106d	1	0.97mi
2313 Pleasure Run Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,829	$1.31	30d	1	0.98mi
2305 Lawrence Hall St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,030	$1.17	5d	1	0.98mi
2304 Pleasure Run Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,970	$1.54	99d	1	0.99mi
2205 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	120d	1	1.05mi
2222 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,250	$1.26	120d	1	1.07mi
2235 Colville Chase Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1936	$2,400	$1.24	120d	1	1.11mi
308 9th St NE Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2198	$2,029	$0.92	45d	1	1.21mi
409 Delwood Breck St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2110	$2,230	$1.06	3d	1	1.29mi
304 Cascade Bend Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1897	$2,950	$1.56	67d	1	1.29mi
503 9th St NE Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,125	$1.23	0d	1	1.30mi
2345 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1801	$2,170	$1.20	77d	1	1.33mi
2345 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1801	$2,170	$1.20	64d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $321,990 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $321,990 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $321,990 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $321,990 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $321,990 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $321,990 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $321,990 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $321,990 Active 288 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $321,990 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $321,990 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $321,990 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $321,990 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $321,990 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $321,990 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $321,990 Active 276 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 275 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $321,990 Active 274 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $326,990 Active 271 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 270 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 269 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 268 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $326,990 Active 267 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 266 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $326,990 Active 265 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 264 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 263 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 262 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $326,990 Active 260 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $326,990 Active 259 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 258 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $326,990 Active 257 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 256 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 255 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $326,990 Active 254 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $326,990 Active 253 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $327,000 Active 252 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $327,000 Active 251 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $327,000 Active 250 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $327,000 Active 249 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $327,000 Active 248 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    price $327,000 Active 246 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 246 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 245 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 244 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 243 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $326,990 Active 240 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 238 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 237 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 235 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 233 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,935
• − Property taxes: −$5,338
• − Insurance: −$1,779
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − Depreciation: −$10,353
• Taxable loss: −$12,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential for minor improvements to enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruskin Elementary School F FL #2,009/2,144 Nat'l #29,439/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruskin, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,319
• Household income: $72,172
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.10%
• Current HPI: 277.8257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $331,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Listed $330,990 Zillow