29688 Shockley Ln · Cordova, MD 21625

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 186 Days on market

Built 1980 0.46 ac lot $108/sqft · 32% below area Est $199k · 32% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Improvement!! Unlock the potential of this affordable 3- bedroom fixer upper on nearly a half acre! Nestled in a peaceful rural setting yet just minutes from in-town conveniences , this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy easy access to major highways , plus prime location only 25 minutes to the Bay Bridge and 40 minutes to Delaware. Whether you're an investor looking to create your dream home, this property is an incredible opportunity in a highly accessible location! Property sold as-is , seller makes no warranties

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 185 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#295 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Talbot County Public Schools (town): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #12 of 24 in MD (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 158 units permitted in Talbot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Talbot County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.27%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,915
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -32.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $36,788
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $107,489
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21625

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $998	-5% $959	+0% $921	+5% $883	+10% $845
Rent	-10% $745	-5% $833	+0% $921	+5% $1,009	+10% $1,097
Rate	-1.0pp $989	-0.5pp $955	base $921	+0.5pp $886	+1.0pp $851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    price $134,900 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Price Improvement!! Unlock the potential of this affordable 3- bedroom fixer upper on nearly a half acre! Nestled in a peaceful rural setting yet just minutes from in-town conveniences , this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy easy access to major highways , plus prime location only 25 minutes to the Bay Bridge and 40 minutes to Delaware. Whether you're an investor looking to create your dream home, this property is an incredible opportunity in a highly accessible location! Property sold as-is , seller makes no warranties

17. 2025-12-16
    listed $149,900 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Price Improvement!! Unlock the potential of this affordable 3- bedroom fixer upper on nearly a half acre! Nestled in a peaceful rural setting yet just minutes from in-town conveniences , this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy easy access to major highways , plus prime location only 25 minutes to the Bay Bridge and 40 minutes to Delaware. Whether you're an investor looking to create your dream home, this property is an incredible opportunity in a highly accessible location! Property sold as-is , seller makes no warranties

18. 2025-12-10
    historical $149,900 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Price Improvement!! Unlock the potential of this affordable 3- bedroom fixer upper on nearly a half acre! Nestled in a peaceful rural setting yet just minutes from in-town conveniences , this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy easy access to major highways , plus prime location only 25 minutes to the Bay Bridge and 40 minutes to Delaware. Whether you're an investor looking to create your dream home, this property is an incredible opportunity in a highly accessible location! Property sold as-is , seller makes no warranties

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$278/yr (+$23/mo · 30.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $9,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,256
• After-tax cash flow: $8,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talbot County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400630
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,786
• Composite: 23.11/100
• National rank: #7961
• State rank: #12 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cordova

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #15384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,837

Population outlook (Talbot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,811 people
• By 2030: 36,305 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 34,818 · -5.4%
• By 2050: 32,982 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 29,631 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 25,767 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talbot

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 49.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -9.6pp · 2024: -0.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.0 2020: D+0.5 2016: R+11.9 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.09%
• Current HPI: 265.7447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-10 Coming Soon $149,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $914 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.