301 1st St SE · Shelby, MT 59474

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1920 9,104 sqft lot Est $97k · 23% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Gas heat
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL BOX
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• GAS HEAT
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• SHED WITH METAL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($895 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#9 in MT, #1,820 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, employment C-, schools F.
• Shelby H S (town): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #182 of 339 in MT (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Toole County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.49%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,824
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Blaine St	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (+2%)	23mo	$90,000	$121	54
223 Madison St	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (-14%)	7mo	$83,000	$133	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $2,865
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $21,791
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59474

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-02-12
    status Pending
16. 2025-11-11
    price $75,000
17. 2025-09-26
    listed $89,000 Active
18. 2005-06-16
    soldstatus
19. 1998-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $630 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$859
• − Management: −$859
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $2,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby H S
• NCES district ID: 3023910
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,862
• Composite: 32.34/100
• National rank: #10892
• State rank: #182 of 339 in MT

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #1820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelby, MT
• Population (ZIP): 3,391

Population outlook (Toole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,767 people
• By 2030: 4,581 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 4,249 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 4,027 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 3,847 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 3,917 · -17.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Native American 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Toole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.5) · D 20.3% · R 76.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: -27.3pp · 2024: -56.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.5 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+40.8 2008: R+27.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.61%
• Current HPI: 155.2065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — MRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $75,000 MRMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $89,000 MRMLS
• 2005-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · -24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.