1210 Crow Berry Cir · Anchorage, AK 99515

$265,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1983 4,308 sqft lot Est $243k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,308 sq ft lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-57/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Taku Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #122 of 156 statewide, top 81%, 286 students, 72% FRL); Hanshew Middle School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #27 of 36 statewide, top 74%, 691 students, 42% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,144 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,550
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1550 Elcadore Dr #122	0.34mi	2/1.5	983 (-1%)	0mo	$265,000	$270	81
1510 Elcadore Dr #134	0.38mi	2/1.5	978 (-1%)	6mo	$249,800	$255	73
1531 Elcadore Dr #110	0.39mi	2/1.5	982 (-1%)	18mo	$219,900	$224	64
9740 Vanguard Dr #39	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	995 (+0%)	9mo	$224,000	$225	57
10224 Jamestown Dr Unit 4A	0.47mi	2/1.5	958 (-3%)	16mo	$257,000	$268	57
10123 Nantucket Loop	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,044 (+6%)	2mo	$260,000	$249	53
9730 Vanguard Dr #13	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	995 (+0%)	12mo	$235,000	$236	53
10224 Jamestown Dr Unit 4F	0.47mi	2/1.5	958 (-3%)	22mo	$235,000	$245	52
1321 Hillcrest Park Ct #10	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,094 (+10%)	12mo	$237,450	$217	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,107
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-32,309
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99515

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,957

Max offer price $264,155

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9905 William Jones Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1171	$2,145	$1.83	13d	10	0.22mi
10260 Jamestown Dr Unit 27-A Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	535	$1,200	$2.24	21d	1	0.43mi
1130 E 112th Ave Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	43d	1	0.61mi
2400 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	21d	1	0.88mi
2510 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	650	$1,395	$2.15	43d	1	0.94mi
449 Dailey Ave Unit 15D Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.5	944	$2,100	$2.22	43d	1	1.26mi
12520 Tanada Loop Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,700	$1.61	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2014-07-31
   soldstatus
4. 2014-06-20
   listed $189,000
5. 2009-11-04
   soldstatus
6. 2009-08-28
   listed $172,000
7. 2003-05-19
   soldstatus
8. 2003-04-14
   listed $117,000
9. 1995-01-17
   soldstatus
10. 1994-09-06
    listed $71,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,299/yr (+$108/mo · 233.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,870
• Household income: $113,995
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 411.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 4% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.45%
• Current HPI: 283.2778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+268.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $265,000 AKMLS
• 2014-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-20 Listed $189,000 AKMLS
• 2009-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-28 Listed $172,000 AKMLS
• 2003-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-14 Listed $117,000 AKMLS
• 1995-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-06 Listed $71,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

-12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · +61.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.