2923 W Market St · Louisville, KY 40212

$200,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 5,227 sqft lot Est $177k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 2923 W Market St—this spacious, renovated 5-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers modern updates throughout. Fresh paint with new flooring and light fixtures create a bright, inviting feel. The updated kitchen features ample cabinetry and counter space. Laundry room can double as pantry storage. Seller will add appliances with an acceptable offer. Large bedrooms on both floors and both full baths have been updated. Outside, vinyl siding and fresh paint make for easy maintenance. Enjoy a fenced yard, a 2-car garage, and an additional storage shed. Conveniently located near the Norton Sports and Learning Center Campus. Move-in ready with room to grow—don't miss this one

Key facts

• Renovated
• Fenced yard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• VINYL SIDING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by appraiser; above-grade living area 2,136
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with rear entry (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence with a traditional style; Two stories; Built in 1900
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Lot is cleared, level and includes sidewalks; Fencing includes privacy, partial and chain-link sections; Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 179

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Two bedrooms on the first floor; Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bathrooms located on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 main rooms and 11 total rooms; Cellar basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $200k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,921 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.54%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,288
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2535 Duncan St	0.49mi	5/2.0	2,100 (-2%)	10mo	$170,000	$81	66
3128 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,333 (+9%)	9mo	$124,000	$53	56
123 S 39th St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,159 (+1%)	6mo	$215,000	$100	53
2513 W Chestnut St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (-1%)	14mo	$144,000	$68	52
3233 W Jefferson St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,922 (-10%)	15mo	$159,000	$83	52
3232 Del Park Ter Ter	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (+3%)	9mo	$211,000	$96	51
657 Louis Coleman Jr Dr	0.74mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,223 (+4%)	9mo	$72,500	$33	36
3141 River Park Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,340 (+10%)	22mo	$197,000	$84	34
3612 River Park Dr	0.71mi	5/2.0	1,926 (-10%)	24mo	$187,500	$97	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $112,219
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $316,761
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,197/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 N 26th St Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	1538	$1,700	$1.11	23d	1	0.40mi
2319 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,300	$0.79	16d	1	0.64mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	2d	1	0.97mi
3909 W Broadway Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	16d	1	1.15mi
858 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	5.0	1.0	2228	$2,100	$0.94	17d	1	1.16mi
722 S 40th St Unit NA Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1556	$1,700	$1.09	3d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,197 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 43.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,197
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $1,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1042.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $200,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $189,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $215,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-11 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-07-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-06-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-05-28 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-05-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-03-11 Listed $17,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-03-11 Listed $17,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-03-11 Listed $12,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-03-11 Listed $10,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-03-11 Listed $17,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,197 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.