63 Bailey Ct #63 · Middle Island, NY 11953

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Condo · 95 Days on market

Built 1965 $189/sqft · 22% below area Est $192k · 22% under $870/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 63 Bailey Court, Middle Island! 1 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Upper Unit Co-op. Utilities are off and it is in need of renovation.

Key facts

• $870 HOA
• Built 1965
• Listed 95 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($931/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Middle Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#703 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,136
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -21.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,793
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,676
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11953

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$870
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,413

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $129	+0% $78	+5% $26	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-22	+0% $78	+5% $177	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $116	base $78	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
524 Tudor Ln Unit 524 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	45d	1	0.26mi
301 Tudor Ln Unit 301 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	45d	1	0.34mi
465 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 465 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	45d	1	0.66mi
463 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 463 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,555	$3.68	45d	1	0.66mi
135 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 135 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	45d	1	0.66mi
130 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 130 Brookhaven, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	0.68mi
356 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 356 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	0.68mi
285 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	836	$1,975	$2.36	45d	1	0.69mi
9 Fairview Cir Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,400	$2.53	25d	1	0.70mi
9 Fairview Cir Unit 2 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,500	$2.64	45d	1	0.70mi
388 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 388 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	45d	1	0.70mi
394 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 394 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	25d	1	0.70mi
238 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,450	$3.06	25d	1	0.72mi
229 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$2,075	$2.44	5d	1	0.72mi
444 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 444 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	0.73mi
462 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 462 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	0.73mi
3 Saratoga Ct Unit B Ridge, NY	2.0	1.0	880	$2,800	$3.18	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $870 · $10,440/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Welcome to 63 Bailey Court, Middle Island! 1 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Upper Unit Co-op. Utilities are off and it is in need of renovation.

2. 2026-04-17
   price $150,000 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Welcome to 63 Bailey Court, Middle Island! 1 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Upper Unit Co-op. Utilities are off and it is in need of renovation.

3. 2026-02-09
   listed $170,000 Active 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Welcome to 63 Bailey Court, Middle Island! 1 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Upper Unit Co-op. Utilities are off and it is in need of renovation.

4. 2013-02-01
   historical
5. 2012-01-30
   listed $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − HOA: −$10,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$213
• After-tax cash flow: $1,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middle Island

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #13264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Island, NY
• City population: 13,383
• Population (ZIP): 13,383

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.61%
• Current HPI: 358.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+284.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $170,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Listed $39,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid