11949 Riverside Dr #99 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1970 Excellent condition 800 sqft lot $281/sqft · 20% below area Est $282k · 20% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks

SENIOR GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY! Be the first one to live in this luxurious home since its remodel. Step into this newly remodeled 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the highly desired 55+ Willowbrook Estates East community in Lakeside. Tastefully updated throughout, this approx. 800 sq ft home blends classic charm with modern comfort, making it truly move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open living area with new flooring, recessed lighting, and a seamless flow into the beautifully updated kitchen. The remodeled kitchen features brand-new appliances, new cabinetry and counters, and plenty of workspace for cooking and entertaining.

Key facts

• New appliances
• Updated kitchen
• Newly remodeled

Tags

• GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• NEWLY REMODELED
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• DUCTLESS MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• MULTIPLE OUTDOOR SITTING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Farms Elementary (649 students, 32% FRL); Lakeside Middle (676 students, 32% FRL); El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,612 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,894
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -20.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12167 WINTERCREST Dr #1	0.91mi	2/1.0	780 (-2%)	4mo	$380,000	$487	53
12134 Lemon Crest Dr #4	1.04mi	2/1.0	819 (+2%)	5mo	$399,000	$487	53
12616 Lakeshore Dr Dr #24	0.95mi	2/2.0	881 (+10%)	2mo	$425,000	$482	47
12650 Lakeshore Dr #160	1.04mi	2/2.0	884 (+10%)	2mo	$370,000	$419	45
9719 Winter Gardens Blvd #176	0.76mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	1mo	$376,000	$516	45
12650 Lakeshore Dr #149	1.04mi	2/2.0	884 (+10%)	5mo	$450,000	$509	44
12157 Orange Crest Ct #2	0.97mi	2/1.0	903 (+13%)	3mo	$410,000	$454	37
12750 Laurel St	1.05mi	2/1.0	921 (+15%)	1mo	$370,000	$402	35
12730 Laurel St #302	1.05mi	2/1.0	921 (+15%)	3mo	$410,000	$445	34
12740 Laurel St #408	1.05mi	2/1.0	921 (+15%)	4mo	$400,000	$434	33
12728 Lakeshore Dr Unit A	1.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	657 (-18%)	2mo	$360,000	$548	29
9729 Winter Gardens Blvd #84	0.78mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (-25%)	3mo	$330,000	$550	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-47,639
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-53,006
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $197,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-114	+0% $-191	+5% $-269	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-259	+0% $-191	+5% $-123	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-134	base $-191	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
SR 67 Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	0d	1	0.48mi
12345 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	815	$2,045	$2.51	0d	1	0.68mi
10026 River St Apt 2 Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	0d	1	0.69mi
12001 Woodside Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,350	$2.34	0d	1	0.71mi
12225 Woodside Ave Unit 12225 B Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,099	$2.44	27d	1	0.71mi
12382 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,495	$2.50	0d	1	0.72mi
12388 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,495	$2.50	0d	1	0.72mi
12356 Parkside St Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	27d	1	0.73mi
12370 Parkside St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,925	$2.04	103d	1	0.75mi
9658 Winter Gardens Blvd Unit 9644-01 Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	565	$1,750	$3.10	70d	1	0.80mi
9658 Winter Gardens Blvd Unit 9644-04 Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	565	$1,750	$3.10	43d	1	0.80mi
9658 Winter Gdns Blvd Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	565	$1,795	$3.18	0d	1	0.80mi
9721 Winter Gardens Blvd #150 Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,750	$3.07	27d	1	0.81mi
9813 River St Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	675	$2,195	$3.25	0d	1	0.83mi
9811 River St Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	675	$2,195	$3.25	0d	1	0.85mi
9728 Marilla Dr Lakeside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$2,590	$3.10	0d	2	0.89mi
12618 Laurel St Unit 12618 C Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	69d	1	0.91mi
10112 Ashwood St Lakeside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,025	$2.42	0d	4	0.93mi
12628 Laurel St Apt D Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,095	$2.62	0d	1	0.93mi
12616 Lakeshore Dr #6 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	881	$2,400	$2.72	56d	1	0.94mi
9662 Marilla Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,350	$2.52	32d	4	0.94mi
9669 Marilla Dr Unit 0C Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,015	$2.37	60d	1	0.94mi
9662 Marilla Dr Unit 93 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,350	$2.52	43d	1	0.94mi
9728 Marilla Dr #305 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	89d	1	0.95mi
12403 Julian Ave #206 Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	806	$2,850	$3.54	97d	1	0.95mi
12645 Laurel St Unit 12 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,899	$2.11	0d	1	0.96mi
12645 Laurel St Apt 13 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,899	$2.11	83d	1	0.96mi
12645 Laurel St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,899	$2.11	6d	1	0.96mi
12645 Laurel St Unit 2 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,899	$2.11	27d	1	0.96mi
12103 Orange Crest Ct #3 Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,350	$2.60	43d	1	0.98mi
12439 Julian Ave Lakeside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	545	$1,995	$3.66	0d	1	0.99mi
12650 Lakeshore Dr #158 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	56d	1	1.02mi
12730 Laurel St #305 Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	921	$2,700	$2.93	0d	1	1.03mi
9525 Riverview Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	740	$3,050	$4.12	103d	1	1.04mi
12115 Wintergreen Dr #4 Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	819	$2,795	$3.41	42d	1	1.04mi
12716 Lakeshore Dr Unit C Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	657	$1,800	$2.74	119d	1	1.06mi
12722 Lakeshore Dr Unit A Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$2,095	$2.85	5d	1	1.07mi
12608 Julian Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$2,050	$2.85	0d	1	1.09mi
12840 Mapleview St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	880	$2,200	$2.50	0d	8	1.10mi
12840 Mapleview St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	880	$2,100	$2.39	93d	2	1.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size classified as 0-1 unit/acreLiving area and lot info sourced from public recordsLocation coordinates available
• HOA & community: Senior communityPark: Willowbrook Estates EastManager approval requiredPets allowedLand lease: $1,030

Exterior

• Parking: Carport2 parking spaces2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Single-story mobile homeMobile dimensions approximately 20' x 40'Mobile home remains on siteModel: 00Entry at living roomFaces entry level 1
• Construction: Total of 1 story
• Exterior features: Enclosed patioCommunity poolGutters

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Gated communityLiving room entrySingle-level home (one story)All bedrooms on the main levelTurnkey condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer includedDryer includedHas laundry

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $-796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Willowbrook Estates East is in excellent condition with recent updates, making it an ideal investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds modern amenities for both buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winter Gardens Elementary Middle Lakeside Middle High El Capitan High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size classified as 0-1 unit/acreLiving area and lot info sourced from public recordsLocation coordinates available
• HOA & community: Senior communityPark: Willowbrook Estates EastManager approval requiredPets allowedLand lease: $1,030

Exterior

• Parking: Carport2 parking spaces2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Single-story mobile homeMobile dimensions approximately 20' x 40'Mobile home remains on siteModel: 00Entry at living roomFaces entry level 1
• Construction: Total of 1 story
• Exterior features: Enclosed patioCommunity poolGutters

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Gated communityLiving room entrySingle-level home (one story)All bedrooms on the main levelTurnkey condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer includedDryer includedHas laundry

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-22 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $249,000 CRMLS