Concept 3009 Plan · Gunter, TX 75058

$677,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,009 sqft · SingleFamily · 1006 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live the life of luxury most people can only dream of with this stunning home. The spacious layout is spread over one level and offers a selection of versatile living areas and a host of optional upgrades to make this property your truth. On either side of the light-filled entry, the foyer sits the elegant formal dining room and the bonus flex room that could be upgraded to a fifth bedroom with a walk-in closet or an inspiring study for those who work from home. From here, the free-flowing floorplans draw you through to the open-concept and expansive kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room complete with large windows and a cozy fireplace. Cooking is accessible in the gourmet chef's kitchen with a large island, a walk-in pantry, and premium appliances, including the optional microwave/oven. You can show off your culinary skills as guests gather at the breakfast bar before stepping outside to the covered patio with two sizes to choose from and the option of adding an outdoor fireplace. As standard, there are four bedrooms, including the master with a huge walk-in closet and a master bath with a garden tub and a double vanity. An upgrade to this master bath would add dual vanities and a freestanding tub. All the secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets and two share a Jack-and-Jill bath, while bedroom four is only steps from the third full bath.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 1005 days

🏗️ New construction. The $677,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $761,074.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $678k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $510k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $446k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $446k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gunter El (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 414 students, 23% FRL); Gunter Middle (math 46% / reading 56%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 373 students, 19% FRL); Gunter H S (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 371 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,464/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $81k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $76k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$131k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1006 days — a 12% lower offer ($597k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $446,418 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1006 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.76%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $761,074
• List price: $677,990
• Delta: -10.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
335 Waterview Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	3,014 (+0%)	7mo	$800,199	$265	90
150 Waterview Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	3,021 (+0%)	7mo	$774,789	$256	80
300 Waterview Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,784 (-8%)	0mo	$705,000	$253	79
300 Waterview Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,784 (-8%)	6mo	$700,000	$251	74
180 Waterview Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	3,206 (+6%)	3mo	$799,000	$249	72
160 Waterview Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,862 (-5%)	6mo	$684,999	$239	71
115 Knoll Trl	0.40mi	4/3.5	3,132 (+4%)	3mo	$850,000	$271	70
115 Knoll Trl	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,132 (+4%)	7mo	$849,900	$271	66
130 Meadow Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	3,382 (+12%)	5mo	$875,000	$259	65
170 Meadow Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	3,441 (+14%)	6mo	$885,544	$257	60
154 Whispering Winds Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,559 (-15%)	5mo	$395,000	$154	52
686 Cypress Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,767 (-8%)	6mo	$729,000	$263	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $304,199
• Equity at exit: $685,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $982,744
• Equity at exit: $1,478,600

Cash invested: $213,101 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $669,990 ($244/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1006 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75058

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$951 /mo · $11,416/yr
• Insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$937
• Net cashflow: $-1,733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,658

Max offer price $510,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,207	-5% $-1,470	+0% $-1,733	+5% $-1,996	+10% $-2,259
Rent	-10% $-2,086	-5% $-1,909	+0% $-1,733	+5% $-1,557	+10% $-1,380
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,350	-0.5pp $-1,539	base $-1,733	+0.5pp $-1,930	+1.0pp $-2,131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $190,269
• Closing costs: $22,832
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 Waterview Dr Gunter, TX	3.0	2.0	2412	$4,200	$1.74	46d	1	0.14mi
300 Waterview Dr Gunter, TX	4.0	3.0	2784	$5,500	$1.98	140d	1	0.19mi
650 Cypress Point Dr Gunter, TX	3.0	2.5	2502	$3,000	$1.20	2d	1	0.69mi
650 Cypress Point Dr Gunter, TX	3.0	2.5	2502	$3,000	$1.20	6d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $677,990 Active 1006 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $677,990 Active 1005 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $677,990 Active 1004 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $677,990 Active 1003 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $677,990 Active 1002 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $677,990 Active 1000 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $677,990 Active 999 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $677,990 Active 998 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $677,990 Active 997 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $677,990 Active 996 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $677,990 Active 995 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $677,990 Active 994 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $677,990 Active 993 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $677,990 Active 992 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $677,990 Active 991 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $677,990 Active 990 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $677,990 Active 989 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $677,990 Active 988 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $677,990 Active 987 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $677,990 Active 986 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $677,990 Active 985 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $677,990 Active 984 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $677,990 Active 983 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $677,990 Active 982 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $677,990 Active 981 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $677,990 Active 980 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $677,990 Active 979 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $677,990 Active 978 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $677,990 Active 977 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $677,990 Active 976 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $677,990 Active 975 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $677,990 Active 974 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $677,990 Active 973 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $677,990 Active 972 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $677,990 Active 971 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $677,990 Active 970 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $677,990 Active 969 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $677,990 Active 968 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $677,990 Active 967 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $677,990 Active 966 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $677,990 Active 965 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $677,990 Active 964 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $677,990 Active 963 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $677,990 Active 962 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $677,990 Active 961 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $677,990 Active 960 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $677,990 Active 959 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $677,990 Active 958 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $677,990 Active 957 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $677,990 Active 956 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,632
• − Property taxes: −$11,416
• − Insurance: −$3,805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,286
• − Management: −$4,286
• − Depreciation: −$22,140
• Taxable loss: −$34,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gunter El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Gunter Middle C TX #326/1,662 Nat'l #3,276/14,009 High Gunter H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gunter ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $79,375
• Composite: 47.63/100
• National rank: #2254
• State rank: #103 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Gunter

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gunter, TX
• County: Grayson · 134,540 people
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,614
• Household income: $117,689
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.56%
• Current HPI: 309.3751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-02-06 Listed $677,990 Zillow