Concept 3009 Plan · Gunter, TX 75058

$677,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,009 sqft · SingleFamily · 866 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live the life of luxury most people can only dream of with this stunning home. The spacious layout is spread over one level and offers a selection of versatile living areas and a host of optional upgrades to make this property your truth. On either side of the light-filled entry, the foyer sits the elegant formal dining room and the bonus flex room that could be upgraded to a fifth bedroom with a walk-in closet or an inspiring study for those who work from home. From here, the free-flowing floorplans draw you through to the open-concept and expansive kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room complete with large windows and a cozy fireplace. Cooking is accessible in the gourmet chef's kitchen with a large island, a walk-in pantry, and premium appliances, including the optional microwave/oven. You can show off your culinary skills as guests gather at the breakfast bar before stepping outside to the covered patio with two sizes to choose from and the option of adding an outdoor fireplace. As standard, there are four bedrooms, including the master with a huge walk-in closet and a master bath with a garden tub and a double vanity. An upgrade to this master bath would add dual vanities and a freestanding tub. All the secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets and two share a Jack-and-Jill bath, while bedroom four is only steps from the third full bath. The long list of extra features is extensive and includes a well-equipped utility room with a host of options and a two-car garage that cou

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 866 days

🏗️ New construction. The $677,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $779,698.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $678k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $629k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $550k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.8% in Gunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gunter El (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 414 students, 23% FRL); Gunter Middle (math 46% / reading 56%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 373 students, 19% FRL); Gunter H S (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 371 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $83k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $78k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$134k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 866 days — a 12% lower offer ($597k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $550,000 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 866 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $779,698
• List price: $677,990
• Delta: -13.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
335 Waterview Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	3,014 (+0%)	2mo	$800,199	$265	94
150 Waterview Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	3,021 (+0%)	2mo	$774,789	$256	84
300 Waterview Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,784 (-8%)	1mo	$700,000	$251	78
160 Waterview Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,862 (-5%)	2mo	$684,999	$239	75
115 Knoll Trl	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,132 (+4%)	3mo	$849,900	$271	70
130 Meadow Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	3,382 (+12%)	1mo	$875,000	$259	68
170 Meadow Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	3,441 (+14%)	2mo	$885,544	$257	64
1264 Mackey Rd	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,009 (0%)	3mo	$2,475,000	$823	60
145 Knoll Trl	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,623 (-13%)	3mo	$674,999	$257	59
139 Parkside Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0	3,275 (+9%)	4mo	$900,000	$275	56
154 Whispering Winds Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,559 (-15%)	0mo	$395,000	$154	56
686 Cypress Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,767 (-8%)	1mo	$729,000	$263	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $358,278
• Equity at exit: $702,413

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $1,107,489
• Equity at exit: $1,514,781

Cash invested: $218,315 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75058

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,089
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$975 /mo · $11,695/yr
• Insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-1,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,821

Max offer price $628,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-504	-5% $-774	+0% $-1,043	+5% $-1,313	+10% $-1,582
Rent	-10% $-1,478	-5% $-1,261	+0% $-1,043	+5% $-826	+10% $-609
Rate	-1.0pp $-651	-0.5pp $-845	base $-1,043	+0.5pp $-1,245	+1.0pp $-1,451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $194,924
• Closing costs: $23,391
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Waterview Dr Gunter, TX	4.0	3.0	2784	$5,500	$1.98	1d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $677,990 Active 866 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $677,990 Active 863 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $677,990 Active 862 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $677,990 Active 861 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $677,990 Active 860 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $677,990 Active 858 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $677,990 Active 854 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $677,990 Active 853 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $677,990 Active 852 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $677,990 Active 849 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $677,990 Active 848 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $677,990 Active 847 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $677,990 Active 846 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $677,990 Active 845 DOM
15. 2024-02-06
    listed $677,990 Active 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    Live the life of luxury most people can only dream of with this stunning home. The spacious layout is spread over one level and offers a selection of versatile living areas and a host of optional upgrades to make this property your truth. On either side of the light-filled entry, the foyer sits the elegant formal dining room and the bonus flex room that could be upgraded to a fifth bedroom with a walk-in closet or an inspiring study for those who work from home. From here, the free-flowing floorplans draw you through to the open-concept and expansive kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room complete with large windows and a cozy fireplace. Cooking is accessible in the gourmet chef's kitchen with a large island, a walk-in pantry, and premium appliances, including the optional microwave/oven. You can show off your culinary skills as guests gather at the breakfast bar before stepping outside to the covered patio with two sizes to choose from and the option of adding an outdoor fireplace. As standard, there are four bedrooms, including the master with a huge walk-in closet and a master bath with a garden tub and a double vanity. An upgrade to this master bath would add dual vanities and a freestanding tub. All the secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets and two share a Jack-and-Jill bath, while bedroom four is only steps from the third full bath. The long list of extra features is extensive and includes a well-equipped utility room with a host of options and a two-car garage that cou

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,675
• − Property taxes: −$11,695
• − Insurance: −$3,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$22,682
• Taxable loss: −$26,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,363
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gunter ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $79,375
• Composite: 47.63/100
• National rank: #2254
• State rank: #103 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gunter

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gunter, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,614

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.56%
• Current HPI: 309.3751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-02-06 Listed $677,990 Zillow