14 Fawn Dr · Milton, NY 12020

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1968 0.44 ac lot Est $381k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained Ranch on most desirable, low traffic st. Large master bedroom, beautiful rear yard with nice deck, perennial gardens, 2 storage sheds. A MUST SEE! Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• One-floor living
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• GEYSER CREST NEIGHBORHOOD
• ONE-FLOOR LIVING
• GAS FIREPLACE
• CENTRAL A/C
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Total parking for 4 vehicles; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Level, cleared, landscaped lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle/asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Paved driveway; Back yard fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Gas fireplace in the living room; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer; Laundry in the basement; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ballston Spa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $300k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,498 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $380,880
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Tamarack Trl	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-1%)	3mo	$376,420	$345	69
12 Curt Blvd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,104 (0%)	6mo	$339,000	$307	68
10 Wagon Wheel Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-1%)	13mo	$385,000	$353	57
303 Meadowlark Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,113 (+1%)	0mo	$385,000	$346	57
60 Edmund Dr	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (+6%)	10mo	$285,000	$242	56
7 Burning Pines Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,008 (-9%)	7mo	$420,000	$417	56
277 Rowland St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (+7%)	7mo	$174,900	$148	45
37 Edmund Dr	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,269 (+15%)	15mo	$300,000	$236	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-19,387
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $70,779
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,459/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $303	+0% $218	+5% $133	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $103	+0% $218	+5% $332	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $294	base $218	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 Hutchins Rd Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	2.0	1316	$3,050	$2.32	14d	7	0.30mi
100 Madison Dr Ballston Spa, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$3,266	$2.85	14d	41	1.04mi
2000 Carlton Way Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1220	$2,520	$2.06	15d	5	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $299,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $299,900 Active
5. 2016-01-06
   soldstatus $182,500
6. 2015-12-31
   soldstatus $182,500 Closed (Final Sale) 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   Well maintained Ranch on most desirable, low traffic st. Large master bedroom, beautiful rear yard with nice deck, perennial gardens, 2 storage sheds. A MUST SEE! Excellent Condition

7. 2015-11-07
   status Pend (Under Cntr) 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   Well maintained Ranch on most desirable, low traffic st. Large master bedroom, beautiful rear yard with nice deck, perennial gardens, 2 storage sheds. A MUST SEE! Excellent Condition

8. 2015-10-28
   listed $184,500 Active 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   Well maintained Ranch on most desirable, low traffic st. Large master bedroom, beautiful rear yard with nice deck, perennial gardens, 2 storage sheds. A MUST SEE! Excellent Condition

9. 1995-04-14
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,459 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,764 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,459
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,779
• − Management: −$2,779
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$2,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $3,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milton, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+252.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2016-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 2015-12-31 Sold (MLS) $182,500 Global MLS
• 2015-11-07 Pending — Global MLS
• 2015-10-28 Listed $184,500 Global MLS
• 1995-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,459 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.