5131 Pembridge Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1939

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5131 Pembridge Ave Across the street Pimlico Race Course, a high-end $800,000 rehabilitation project is well-positioned for significant returns. The area is undergoing major transformation, making it suitable for converting historic, large-scale residential properties into luxury rentals or upscale townhomes to serve the racing community and commuters. call Leroy 410-807-6441 Need Proof of Funds

Key facts

• Built 1939
• Listed 20 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $946 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $69k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,965 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.73%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4912 Palmer Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	1mo	$60,000	$43	81
4911 Queensberry Ave	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,390 (-1%)	2mo	$155,000	$112	80
3015 Spaulding Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-7%)	5mo	$80,000	$62	74
3026 Virginia Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,442 (+3%)	3mo	$75,000	$52	72
4903 Chalgrove Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+9%)	2mo	$187,000	$122	70
3223 Spaulding Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+7%)	0mo	$219,900	$147	60
2361 Sundew Ter #2361	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,298 (-8%)	3mo	$181,000	$139	45
5035 Yellowwood Ave	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,472 (+5%)	8mo	$305,000	$207	45
3716 Beehler Ave	0.67mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,445 (+3%)	3mo	$265,000	$183	45
3706 Hayward Ave	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,504 (+7%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	43
3800 Hayward Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-13%)	6mo	$80,000	$65	35
4558 Finney Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$240,000	$150	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $48,011
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $115,165
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $589

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5115 Pembridge Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,150	$1.98	43d	1	0.03mi
5301 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	43d	1	0.34mi
5340 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.40mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	23d	1	0.56mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.60mi
2432 Everton Rd Unit 2435 A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	23d	1	0.61mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.66mi
4714 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	43d	1	0.70mi
2824 Edgecombe Cir S Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	21d	1	0.75mi
5343 Nelson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,215	$1.22	23d	1	0.78mi
2915 Oakford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,600	$1.45	17d	1	0.78mi
2310 Sulgrave Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	978	$1,700	$1.74	43d	1	0.79mi
2454 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	0.88mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	23d	1	0.89mi
2530 Edgecombe Cir N Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0	920	$1,325	$1.44	2d	4	0.91mi
2619 Loyola Northway Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,995	$1.43	23d	1	0.94mi
5801 Western Run Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,979	$2.37	2d	7	0.98mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	17d	1	1.02mi
3912 Mortimer Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,723	$2.26	43d	1	1.05mi
2415 Loyola Southway Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,033	$1.69	43d	1	1.12mi
2900 Taney Rd Apt 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	1.15mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.22mi
2001 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$3,505	$3.04	1d	31	1.24mi
3822 Pall Mall Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,875	$1.42	43d	1	1.36mi
103 Cross Keys Rd Unit R103D2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1157	$2,000	$1.73	23d	1	1.42mi
6317 Pearce Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	43d	1	1.43mi
6310 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1080	$1,940	$1.80	2d	6	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 399-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $69,000 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $10,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,613
• After-tax cash flow: $8,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+72.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $69,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-11 Delisted — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-05 Listed $77,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2007-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $56,700 Public Records
• 1998-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $896 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.