8175 S Alice Vail Ln · Three Points, AZ 85736

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 1.03 ac lot Est $175k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living on this fully fenced one-acre property with plenty of space for animals, gardening, or outdoor activities. The home features a split floor plan with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms for added privacy. The cozy kitchen with oak cabinetry creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. Recent upgrades include three new 1-ton mini-split systems for efficient cooling and heating, plus a freshly coated roof in 2024. With RV parking and horse-friendly zoning, this property offers flexibility and room to grow. Take in beautiful sunrises and sunsets from your private acre--comfortable, quiet, and move-in ready.

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 44,867 sq ft; Zoned Pima County - GR1

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Gated RV parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Frame with stucco; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Wrought iron fencing; Dirt road access; Subdivided lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Electric oven; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,134 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,636
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8175 S Alice Vail Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	1mo	$164,500	$178	100
8464 S Taylor Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	15mo	$185,000	$189	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $77,664
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $233,789
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85736

• Home prices YoY: 29.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $136,499

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-61	+0% $-105	+5% $-149	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-145	+0% $-105	+5% $-64	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-65	base $-105	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $155,000 Active
3. 2026-04-07
   historical
4. 2026-03-29
   listed $155,000 Active
5. 2026-02-12
   status Active
6. 2026-02-12
   historical
7. 2026-02-12
   historical
8. 2026-02-05
   historical Active Contingent
9. 2026-01-21
   listed $183,000 Active
10. 2026-01-20
    historical
11. 2026-01-19
    listed $183,000 Active
12. 2026-01-18
    listed $183,000 Active
13. 2026-01-18
    historical
14. 2026-01-05
    price $183,000
15. 2025-11-13
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2025-07-01
    historical
17. 2025-06-10
    price $184,999
18. 2025-04-21
    price $189,999
19. 2025-03-15
    listed $195,000 Active
20. 2005-03-02
    historical
21. 2004-09-02
    listed $45,900
22. 2002-01-20
    historical
23. 2001-07-24
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$613/yr (+$51/mo · 149.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$4,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $-277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Points, AZ
• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 4,249

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scottish 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.66%
• Current HPI: 347.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+245.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-12 Listed $155,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-29 Listed $155,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-21 Listed $183,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-19 Listed $183,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-18 Listed $183,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $183,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-13 Listed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $184,999 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $189,999 MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-15 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-03-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2004-09-02 Listed $45,900 MLSSAZ
• 2002-01-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2001-07-24 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.