407 E Prospect St · Red Oak, IA 51566

$119,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1920 5,400 sqft lot $60/sqft · 16% above area Est $103k · 16% over ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 2,000 sq. ft. of living space with recent updates. The upstairs bathroom has been completely redone, and there's a convenient main floor laundry room. The home features a newer roof, an updated front deck, newer windows, The home features a newer roof, an updated front deck, newer windows, a newer water heater, and a newer furnace. The property was set up as a duplex in the past with a 1st nd 2nd floor apartments, but it has been converted into a single family home. With a little work, it could be returned to the previous duplex. . With plenty of space, this home could be perfect for you. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Upstairs bathroom
• Newer windows

Tags

• UPSTAIRS BATHROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED FRONT DECK
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.6% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#428 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak Community School District (town): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #255 of 289 in IA (top 88%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,915 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.12%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,750
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: 16.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1010 N 6th St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (-6%)	3mo	$143,000	$76	77
701 E Oak St	0.25mi	4/3.0	1,968 (-2%)	9mo	$165,000	$84	74
306 Maple St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-10%)	10mo	$138,500	$77	70
207 E Joy St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-12%)	4mo	$122,500	$70	64
1123 Boundary St	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-6%)	14mo	$310,000	$165	63
1509 N 8th St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,117 (+6%)	12mo	$209,000	$99	58
711 E Oak St	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,253 (+13%)	2mo	$139,500	$62	58
1022 E Joy St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,769 (-12%)	15mo	$95,000	$54	47
210 N 8th St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (-13%)	5mo	$50,000	$29	43
1411 N 8th St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,727 (-14%)	19mo	$200,000	$116	42
1406 Forest Ave	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,224 (+11%)	9mo	$250,000	$112	37
1213 Circle Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-14%)	11mo	$188,000	$110	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,150
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $29,539
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51566

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $372	+0% $338	+5% $304	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $283	+0% $338	+5% $393	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $368	base $338	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,500 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $119,500 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 2,000 sq. ft. of living space with recent updates. The upstairs bathroom has been completely redone, and there's a convenient main floor laundry room. The home features a newer roof, an updated front deck, newer windows, The home features a newer roof, an updated front deck, newer windows, a newer water heater, and a newer furnace. The property was set up as a duplex in the past with a 1st nd 2nd floor apartments, but it has been converted into a single family home. With a little work, it could be returned to the previous duplex. . With plenty of space, this home could be perfect for you. Make your appointment today!

18. 2025-11-03
    price $122,500
19. 2025-10-07
    status Active
20. 2025-09-23
    price $127,500
21. 2025-07-14
    price $137,500
22. 2025-07-01
    price $144,900
23. 2025-06-03
    price $149,900
24. 2025-05-01
    price $154,900
25. 2025-03-24
    price $159,900
26. 2024-10-03
    listed $167,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $2,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $3,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1924000
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,902
• Composite: 48.77/100
• National rank: #2092
• State rank: #255 of 289 in IA

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #9239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Oak, IA
• City population: 7,004
• Population (ZIP): 7,004

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,518 people
• By 2030: 9,116 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 8,303 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 7,595 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,568 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 5,800 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.1) · D 29.8% · R 68.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -39.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.1 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.42%
• Current HPI: 187.1643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-28.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $119,500 IAR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $122,500 IAR
• 2025-10-07 Relisted — IAR
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $127,500 IAR
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $137,500 IAR
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $144,900 IAR
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $149,900 IAR
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $154,900 IAR
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $159,900 IAR
• 2024-10-03 Listed $167,000 IAR

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · +129.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.