4000 N Grand Blvd · St. Louis, MO 63107

$70,000

3 bd · None ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1887 $53/sqft · 36% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ever thought of buying a home you can run a business in also? This 3 bedroom home has a store front attached. There are 4 lots attached to this. Nice large yard. Sold as is.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Store front
• Built 1887

Tags

• STORE FRONT
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.11%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,128
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -56.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3716 Hebert St	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,460 (+11%)	11mo	$170,000	$116	54
3714 Hebert St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,460 (+11%)	13mo	$170,000	$116	53
3712 Hebert St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+13%)	12mo	$170,000	$114	51
4101 Lee Ave	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,236 (-6%)	9mo	$85,000	$69	46
4151 Pleasant St	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (-13%)	20mo	$104,900	$91	46
3706 Hebert St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+13%)	19mo	$160,000	$108	45
3702 Hebert St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+13%)	20mo	$160,000	$108	44
3704 Hebert St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+13%)	21mo	$160,000	$108	44
2131 E De Soto Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,496 (+13%)	12mo	$59,900	$40	38
4526 Alice Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+12%)	11mo	$85,000	$58	38
3721 Maffitt Ave	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,418 (+7%)	21mo	$20,000	$14	35
2036 E De Soto Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,175 (-11%)	18mo	$25,000	$21	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $22,644
• Equity at exit: $14,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $61,976
• Equity at exit: $13,092

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $205/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $523

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $495	+0% $475	+5% $456	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $431	+0% $475	+5% $520	+10% $564
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $493	base $475	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2207 Angelica St Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1734	$1,350	$0.78	44d	1	0.33mi
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	24d	1	0.35mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	44d	1	0.56mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	5d	1	0.63mi
1906 Obear Ave #1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	22d	1	0.69mi
2239 University St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,295	$1.16	12d	1	0.82mi
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	44d	1	1.01mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	5d	1	1.10mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	5d	1	1.12mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	15d	1	1.16mi
1708 Annie Malone Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	924	$1,500	$1.62	44d	1	1.42mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	1.46mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	17d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $70,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $80,000 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Ever thought of buying a home you can run a business in also? This 3 bedroom home has a store front attached. There are 4 lots attached to this. Nice large yard. Sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $205 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$40/mo · 231.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$205
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $4,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $205 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.