170 Glaze Creek Rd · Birmingham, AL 35023

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 1978 1.21 ac lot $54/sqft · 49% below area Est $89k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice getaway spot with an adjacent . 04 acre lot with water frontage. Owner advised of discounted price if buying both lots. Property comes with furnished appliances. Has gas lines run for possible propane hook up.

Key facts

• Water frontage
• Furnished appliances
• Gas lines

Tags

• WATER FRONTAGE
• FURNISHED APPLIANCES
• GAS LINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41 of equity ($311 loan paydown + $-270 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $45k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.55%
• DSCR: 3.65
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,902
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -49.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.6% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $35,673
• Equity at exit: $11,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $80,565
• Equity at exit: $13,078

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35023

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $147/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $45,000 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Nice getaway spot with an adjacent . 04 acre lot with water frontage. Owner advised of discounted price if buying both lots. Property comes with furnished appliances. Has gas lines run for possible propane hook up.

15. 2019-01-22
    price $32,000
16. 1997-09-30
    soldstatus $20,000
17. 1992-11-25
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $147 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $185 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$147
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $5,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,533
• Household income: $69,863
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 247.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.60%
• Current HPI: 389.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $45,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-01-22 Price Changed $32,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1997-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $147 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.