930 Moonshine Ln · San Marcos, TX 78132

$272,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 $128/sqft · 37% below area Est $430k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner's suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 54 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 930 Moonshine Ln, New Braunfels, TX 78132; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $283,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Lucia plan); Spec inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2126

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Lucia plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1136 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,037 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,378
• List price: $272,999
• Delta: -36.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Village West Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,416 (+14%)	1mo	$599,000	$248	42
318 Hunter Rdg	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (-8%)	6mo	$485,000	$249	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,737
• Equity at exit: $40,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-102,558
• Equity at exit: $23,604

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1136
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $235,530

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-165	+0% $-259	+5% $-353	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-340	+0% $-259	+5% $-178	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-121	-0.5pp $-190	base $-259	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	8d	1	0.35mi
318 Hunter Ridge Rd San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,100	$1.08	44d	1	0.70mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,995	$1.02	18d	1	0.99mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,995	$1.02	44d	1	0.99mi
144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,975	$1.13	25d	1	1.02mi
208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,950	$1.25	44d	1	1.13mi
145 Tortoise Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2196	$2,100	$0.96	44d	1	1.22mi
502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1222	$2,570	$2.10	2d	44	1.23mi
435 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	2021	$2,150	$1.06	25d	1	1.38mi
250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,950	$1.25	16d	1	1.41mi
133 Netherland St San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2275	$2,200	$0.97	4d	1	1.44mi
133 Camino Verde San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,600	$1.35	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $272,999 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,999 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,999 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,999 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $272,999 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,999 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $275,999 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,999 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,999 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $278,999 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $278,999 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,999 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,999 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,999 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,999 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $285,999 514-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    price $289,999 514-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $306,999 Active 514-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$7,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B