15615 Willowdale Rd · Citrus Park, FL 33625

$265,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1985 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

Key facts

• New 2025 hvac system
• 0.72-acre lot
• Ideal for rvs

Tags

• 0.72-ACRE LOT
• NEW 2025 HVAC SYSTEM
• ALL-NEW PLUMBING
• LARGE TWO-VEHICLE CARPORT
• IDEAL FOR RVS
• IDEAL FOR BOATS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#176 in FL, #2,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $266k implies a 1262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.11%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-22,729
• Equity at exit: $39,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-13,724
• Equity at exit: $22,956

Cash invested: $74,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33625

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,392
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,567/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $265,500

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,375
• Closing costs: $7,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15324 Lake Bella Vista Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,800	$1.58	14d	1	0.46mi
15715 Scrimshaw Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1575	$3,500	$2.22	24d	1	0.73mi
15313 Heathridge Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,810	$1.34	21d	1	0.82mi
6408 Beaver Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	12d	1	0.86mi
5306 Ridgewell Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$2,100	$1.64	24d	1	1.17mi
5301 Carrollwood Meadows Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1135	$1,995	$1.76	23d	1	1.20mi
5301 Carrollwood Meadows Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1135	$1,995	$1.76	21d	1	1.20mi
5102 Belmere Pkwy Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,843	$1.91	1d	18	1.24mi
7308 Alvina St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,295	$1.86	3d	1	1.32mi
15420 Brushwood Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$3,000	$1.63	4d	1	1.35mi
16101 Gardendale Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,900	$1.86	24d	1	1.39mi
14124 Damselfly Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,750	$1.40	17d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,500 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,500 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,500 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,500 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,500 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,500 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,500 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,500 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,500 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,500 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,500 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,500 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,500 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $265,500 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

16. 2026-04-19
    price $285,500 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $295,500 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

18. 2026-03-14
    price $305,500 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

19. 2026-02-14
    price $312,400 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

20. 2026-01-16
    listed $319,900 Active 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in-ready home in the highly sought-after Citrus Park area, located less than one mile from the Veterans Expressway for easy access and everyday convenience. Set on a spacious 0.72-acre lot, this property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or storage—with no HOA or deed restrictions. The home features brand new carpet, a new 2025 HVAC system, and all-new plumbing throughout, providing modern comfort and peace of mind. A large two-vehicle carport offers covered parking, while the expansive lot is ideal for RVs, boats, or additional structures. Enjoy the perfect blend of space, privacy, and prime location—an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. This prime piece of real estate is LOADED WITH POTENTIAL! Surrounded by stunning newer homes, this is a great lot to build on or expand into current structure. This deal is “Cash” only.

21. 2026-01-07
    historical
22. 2025-10-27
    price $329,900
23. 2025-09-28
    price $339,900
24. 2025-09-21
    listed $350,000 Active
25. 2024-12-11
    status Pending
26. 2024-12-11
    status Active
27. 2024-12-10
    historical
28. 2024-09-09
    status Active
29. 2024-07-17
    status Pending
30. 2024-07-14
    listed $314,900 Active
31. 2024-04-16
    status Pending
32. 2024-04-15
    historical
33. 2024-03-20
    price $300,000
34. 2023-09-02
    status Active
35. 2023-08-24
    status Pending
36. 2023-05-28
    listed $335,000 Active
37. 2021-01-04
    historical
38. 2020-08-25
    listed $225,000 Active
39. 2017-07-21
    historical
40. 2017-01-23
    listed $185,000 Active
41. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,567 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 40.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,872
• − Property taxes: −$1,567
• − Insurance: −$1,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − Depreciation: −$7,724
• Taxable income: $976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$234
• After-tax cash flow: $5,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #2666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Park, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 29,967
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,967
• Household income: $93,133
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1084.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 39% Two or more races 26% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 12% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.85%
• Current HPI: 359.52
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.23%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1261.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $265,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $285,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $295,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $305,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $312,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $319,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-14 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-28 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-25 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-23 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,567 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.