16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 136A · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $162/sqft · 5% above area Est $123k · 5% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2022, offering 800 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. This well-maintained home is exceptionally clean and truly move-in ready. Highlights include a custom carport, a ramped sidewalk to the front entrance for easy step-free access, and a convenient storage room. A must-see opportunity!

Key facts

• Storage room
• Custom carport
• Ramped sidewalk

Tags

• CUSTOM CARPORT
• RAMPED SIDEWALK
• STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.60%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,241
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 9.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #44	0.24mi	2/1.5	784 (-2%)	16mo	$88,400	$113	70
16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 141B	0.24mi	2/2.0	896 (+12%)	8mo	$135,000	$151	62
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 114B	0.24mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	13mo	$115,000	$160	61
190 N Cornerstone Way #47	0.58mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	24mo	$35,000	$42	45
3680 W State Hwy 260 Hwy Unit C29	0.22mi	1/1.0 (-1)	685 (-14%)	15mo	$54,500	$80	44
190 N Cornerstone Way #42	0.58mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	14mo	$105,000	$146	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-570
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,960
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 706
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $366	+0% $321	+5% $277	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $260	+0% $321	+5% $382	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $355	base $321	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatus $130,000 Pending 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $140,000 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2022, offering 800 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. This well-maintained home is exceptionally clean and truly move-in ready. Highlights include a custom carport, a ramped sidewalk to the front entrance for easy step-free access, and a convenient storage room. A must-see opportunity!

18. 2026-03-16
    listed $145,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2022, offering 800 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. This well-maintained home is exceptionally clean and truly move-in ready. Highlights include a custom carport, a ramped sidewalk to the front entrance for easy step-free access, and a convenient storage room. A must-see opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $3,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is exceptionally clean and move-in ready. It offers 800 sq. ft. of comfortable living space and is well-maintained with good condition in all areas.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace window treatments — New curtains can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — New countertops can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace appliances — New appliances can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New curtains can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — New countertops can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace appliances — New appliances can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $140,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $145,000 CAAR