55 Marin Valley Dr · Novato, CA 94949

$289,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1972 $211/sqft · 16% below area Est $345k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Marin's coveted 55+ community, 55 Marin Valley Drive is a bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, light, and opportunity. Freshly painted inside and out, the home features new wide-plank flooring and updated light fixtures throughout, creating a fresh, modern feel. Generous windows fill the space with natural light, enhancing the open layout and easy flow. The home offers a wonderful blank canvas for a buyer to personalize and make their own. The community itself is a true highlight, with a welcoming clubhouse featuring a saltwater swimming pool, spa, fitness room, and a wide variety of social activities. Walking paths wind through the neighborhood, with natu

Key facts

• Fitness room
• Walking paths
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SALTWATER SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS ROOM
• WALKING PATHS
• NATURE AND OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $702
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park, double wide
• Construction: Ventura make; KIT manufacturer; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Located in Marin Valley Mobile Country Club (senior community); Land lease in park

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No built-in cooling
• Interior features: Original and updated/remodeled condition; Tub with shower over
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $280k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.75%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,823
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -16.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Fallen Leaf Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	0mo	$419,000	$312	91
10 Fallen Leaf Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	1mo	$275,000	$191	84
15 Scenic Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	3mo	$325,000	$226	79
28 Marin Valley Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	14mo	$390,000	$271	73
133 Panorama Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	17mo	$326,000	$226	73
125 Sunrise Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	18mo	$264,500	$184	73
22 Marin Valley Dr	0.17mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	10mo	$355,000	$247	70
60 Club View Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	16mo	$165,000	$115	68
177 Marin Valley Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	1mo	$466,000	$303	67
59 Club View Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	11mo	$279,000	$224	67
16 Marin Valley Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	9mo	$350,000	$292	63
18 Fallen Leaf Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	14mo	$390,000	$325	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $1,062
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $44,330
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$759
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Redhawk Rd Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1731	$3,950	$2.28	2d	1	0.81mi
130 Pelican Ln Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1674	$3,925	$2.34	44d	1	0.81mi
75 Gann Way Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1822	$5,000	$2.74	15d	1	1.20mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	2d	1	1.23mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	44d	1	1.24mi
158 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$3,900	$3.35	24d	1	1.28mi
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	2d	1	1.30mi
67 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	949	$3,300	$3.48	5d	1	1.37mi
20 North Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$3,625	$4.55	2d	3	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $289,000 Active 794-char remark
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $289,000 Active
17. 2009-06-01
    price $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,472
• − Management: −$3,472
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $6,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,459
• After-tax cash flow: $8,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+80.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $289,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $289,000 BAREIS
• 2009-06-01 Price Changed $160,000 BAREIS