2285 Barrage Ct · Middleburg, FL 32068

$217,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2015 1.31 ac lot Est $245k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PENDING - TAKING BACK UP OFFERS. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home just built in 2015 offers you plenty of space without losing it's cozy feel. This home sits on over an acre of land with a huge back yard and is located off of a quiet private road. Completely renovated top to bottom this home features new water-resistant laminate flooring and freshly painted/textured walls throughout as well as new appliances and new wall to wall carpeting. It is just 25 minutes to Orange Park and 45 minutes to Jacksonville making it a central location between these two major cities. Home is Tenant occupied until October 1st. Please do not disturb the tenant

Key facts

• Quiet private road
• Huge back yard
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• HUGE BACK YARD
• QUIET PRIVATE ROAD
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home
• Exterior features: 1.31-acre lot; Residential use; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Central heating and central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $218k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,176 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,430
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4325 Angora St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	19mo	$267,000	$206	63
63 Yucca St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	24mo	$249,000	$202	57
4497 Peppergrass St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (+4%)	13mo	$200,000	$158	55
4542 Mayflower St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	22mo	$240,000	$192	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,066
• Equity at exit: $32,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,851
• Equity at exit: $18,805

Cash invested: $60,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,141
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $217,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,375
• Closing costs: $6,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4027 Everett Ave Unit C Middleburg, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $217,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 295-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $217,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $502 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,805 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,303/yr (+$109/mo · 259.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,183
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$1,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − Depreciation: −$6,327
• Taxable loss: −$729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$175
• After-tax cash flow: $3,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2053.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $217,500 realMLS
• 2019-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-13 Sold (MLS) $125,000 realMLS
• 2019-10-07 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-09-13 Listed $125,000 realMLS
• 2018-12-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-10-29 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-10-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-10-15 Listed $125,000 realMLS
• 2016-12-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2016-11-23 Price Changed $75,500 realMLS
• 2016-10-14 Price Changed $79,900 realMLS
• 2016-08-11 Listed $99,999 realMLS
• 2016-08-11 Price Changed $89,900 realMLS
• 2016-08-11 Price Changed $83,900 realMLS
• 2015-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $32,090 Public Records
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $502 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.